http://tinyurl.com/27xvz5 By Alex Eisenberg Month 25, 2008 One of the big mysteries of the 2007 season was the decline of Pirates' OF Jason Bay. The question everybody has is how it happened. Was it injuries? Bay did battle knee discomfort for much of the 2007 season and was coming off arthroscopic knee surgery from the previous offseason. However, Bay has said his knee only bothered him when playing the field and had no effect on his season. Did he just have a down year? Another possibility. Perhaps he has just begun his decline as players with his skill set seem to decline at a faster and earlier rate. Lets begin with his numbers from the last two seasons: 2006 - .286 BA, .928 OPS, 15.2 BB%, 27.4 K%, .246 ISO, .338 BABIP, 15.6 LD%, 40.4 GB%, 3.8 IFFB%, 18.8 HR/FB% 2007 - .247 BA, .746 OPS, 9.9 BB%, 26.2 K%, .171 ISO, .298 BABIP, 16.5 LD%, 38 GB%, 9.8 IFFB%, 11.4 HR/FB% 去年赛季最大的谜团之一是Jason Bay的不振。揪竟~~这是为什麽呢？ 是受伤吗？Jason Bay去年确实一直有膝盖问题的困扰，在季前也曾动了膝盖关节镜手术。 然而，他表示膝盖问题只有在守备时有影响。只是因为单纯的低潮吗？有可能。或者是， 也许他只是到了该衰退的年龄？ 我们先从Jason Bay过去两年的成绩谈起吧。 2006 - .286 BA, .928 OPS, 15.2 BB%, 27.4 K%, .246 ISO, .338 BABIP, 15.6 LD%, 40.4 GB%, 3.8 IFFB%, 18.8 HR/FB% 2007 - .247 BA, .746 OPS, 9.9 BB%, 26.2 K%, .171 ISO, .298 BABIP, 16.5 LD%, 38 GB%, 9.8 IFFB%, 11.4 HR/FB% What do the statistics tell us? 1. Loss of power - 75 point loss in ISO-power and a decline in the percentage of fly balls that became HRs (18.8% to 11.4%) 2. Softer contact - lower batting average and a lower BABIP (batting average on balls in play) 3. Decline in plate discipline - he may not have seen the ball all that well out of the pitcher's hand or he felt uncomfortable hitting with two strikes due to a drop in confidence 4. Similar batted ball data - Bay hit a similar about of GBs and FBs, while his LD% went up slightly. His IFFB% moved more toward the league average. 数据告诉我们什麽？ 1.爆发力的衰退 - ISOP有75趴的减少，同时HR/FB比也下降。 2.更差的击球率 - 更低的打击率和BABIP。 3.挥棒自制能力的退化 - 可能他看不清楚投手投出的球路或是在两好球时信心下降。 4.相似的打击内容 - Bay的滚球和飞球率在这两年很接近，而且平飞率还上升一些。他的 IF/FB更接近联盟平均。 The clip on the left is of Bay in 2006 and the pitch is a 92 mph fastball that drifts back over the middle of the plate. The clip on the right is of Bay during the 2007 season and the pitch is an 89 mph fastball with a little sink that also drifts back over the middle of the plate. I've done my best to synchronize the clips to contact, but if the clips seperate from one another, just refresh the browser and the clips will start over again. Both pitches were hit for HRs between left and center field. So what differences do you see if any at all? My first general observation is that he seems a bit more together in 06. The bat is closer to his body and the arms have a little bit more of a bend to them . What I specifically want to look at is his stride into foot plant. It looks as if the 07 Bay reaches his front leg forward as he lifts and drops his foot into foot plant, while the 06 Bay seems to glide into foot plant without reaching. 左边那段短片是2006年的Bay面对一颗92 mph的红中速球。右边那段式2007年的Bay面对一 颗89 mph的红中速球带点下沉尾劲。 这两颗球都被打成中左外野的全垒打。 所以，你看到了什麽？ 首先，我最先注意到的是他在06年的协调感觉比较好。球棒比较靠近身体同时手臂弓得比 较多。我特别注意到他跨步。07年的Bay看起来像他只是踏出一步，但06年的跨步比较有些 滑行的感觉。 The two clips above are of Bay from toe touch into foot plant. They both seem to carry their wieght forward a similar distance. However, the problem is with his timing and efficiency. Look at Bay in 06...see how at the very end of the clip, the point in which his foot plants, his hips have begun to rotate and the hands are about to come with it? Bay's 2006 swing has much better efficiency of the power-producing components that go into a swing. Use the belt buckle as an indicator. The chain of events that lead to Bay's swing look much more smooth and efficient in 2006 than 2007. As each version begins to rotate their hips, which looks to have the more violent/aggressive rotation of their hips? Which version puts more force into their swing? 这两段是脚掌着地的过程 看起来很接近。然而，问题是在於timing and efficiency。有没有看到，06年的Bay，在 脚掌着地的一刹那间身体开始转动，手开始带进来？06年Bay的挥棒有比较好的效率。利用 腰带扣当做指引。这整个连锁反应使Bay在06年的挥棒比起07年更加平顺、有效率。 在启动旋转的过程中，哪个旋转看起来更有侵略性？哪个版本看来挥棒使力较多？ To me, it looks like the 06 version has a much more powerful hip rotation. Bay's 2007 swing doesn't build up as much momentum and force as his 2006 swing does. To see a powerful hip rotation, all one has to do is look at what Prince Fielder does. I think part of the problem is that he extends that front leg forward and hurts his ability to efficiently rotate his hips like he does in 06. Also, if you go back and simply look at each version before he swings, you see a lot of unnecessary movement in the 07 clip. The bat is the key indicator to look at. 在我看来，06年的版本臀部的扭转有更多的力道。07年的Bay的挥棒没有制造出相当於06年 挥棒的动量和力道。关於臀部的扭转，可以参考Prince Fielder的示范。我想扭转的问题 有一部分是因为前脚的过度伸展，这削弱了Bay臀部扭转的效率。 另外，假使你在简单的回去浏览之前的影片，你可以看到07年的Bay做了很多不必要的动作 ，球棒是很好的线索。 Getting Jason Bay Back On Track Well, I first think this goes beyond mechanical problems. If you read certain quotes from Bay during his slump, you will hear him talk about a feeling of uncomfortableness. He said something to the effect of finding himself in an 0-2 hole and having the feeling the at bat was already over. His confidence is the first thing he must correct. When the pitch is thrown, the batter has less than a second to see the ball, determine pitch type, determine the pitch location, and decide whether to swing the bat or not. There is no room for thinking about mechanics. The more a player thinks, the worse they do. Once he fixes himself mentally, he should go to work on his mechanics. He first needs to shorten his swing a little. Get into a more compact, more together position like he had in 2006. Bay should then work on his stride into foot plant so that he efficiently maximizes the power of his swing. Of course, this is all easier said than done. We'll revisit this article later to see what adjustments, if any Bay makes. 回到原来的Jason Bay 嗯，我首先想到的不是动作上的问题。如果你有听说过Jason Bay对自己低潮的评论，你会 听到很多不舒服的话。他说当在0-2的时候总有不知名的困扰使他觉得这个打席已经完蛋了 。他需要先建立起信心。当球投出後，打者只有不到一秒的时间看到球、辨识球路种类、 决定要不要攻击。没有时间去想东想西。想的愈多，打的愈差。 建立信心後，他需要修正一些动作。更简短的挥棒。更多的冲量、更好的协调，像他在06 年做的那样。接下来再把跨步做好。 当然，说的总是比做的简单。假如Bay有做些什麽修正的话，我们会再回顾这篇文章。 --

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