等着2:20的比赛，快速翻译一下帮Cole集气 https://cannonballcorner.com/2017/04/13/gerrit-coles-2017-outlook/ Gerrit Cole entered 2016 as the Pirates ace and left 2016 as an injury risk and a guy who struggled to hold a sub 4.00 ERA. Now that Taillon has looks great on the mound, the conversation has shifted away from how good Cole is to who is the true ace in Pittsburgh. It is unfortunate that fans need to make a competition out of everything. This year the Pirates have a real chance to have a great young rotation, and all that can be discussed is if Taillon is the player that the fans want Cole to be. 2016年开季，Cole在海盗扮演了王牌的角色，球季结束，却变成一个伤势缠身，挣扎着 把ERA控制在4边缘的凡人。 Taillon现在看起来表现很好，大家的话题不再是「Cole有多棒」，而是「谁才是匹兹堡 真王牌」。 不幸地，球迷就是凡事都爱比较。今年海盗很可能会有一个很棒的年轻轮值，而讨论重点 就是，Taillon会不会成为球迷都希望Cole成为的王牌呢？ Is Gerrit Cole still an ace? Well, you can decide for yourself. I think he is, but it all comes down to how you want to define what an ‘ace’ is. Either way, Gerrit Cole was not an ace in 2016. And him being an ace is pivotal towards the Pirates success. Neal Huntington even said this past offseason that “There’s no coincidence that we were good when Gerrit was good.” But, will he be an ace in 2017? No matter how you break it down, Gerrit Cole’s 2016 was definitely not that of an ace. A 3.88 ERA is absolutely not what you want from your ‘ace’ pitcher. However, he is still just 26 years old. A bad season at 25 in which he was injured throughout, should not be enough to have your status as an ace thrown out. Cole还是个王牌吗？每个人都各有各自的答案。我觉得他是啊，不过终究是要看你要怎麽 定义「王牌」这个词。不管如何，2016的Cole并不是王牌。投出王牌水准的Cole对海盗的 成功绝对是关键，就连GM Huntington都说，「Gerrit投得好的时候，我们就打得好，这 才不是巧合哩。」好，那Cole在2017会是王牌吗？ 不管怎麽看，2016的Cole绝对不是王牌，你不会说一个防御率3.88的投手是王牌的。但不 管怎样，他才26岁，在25岁球季因为伤病的关系投得不好，不应该就让我们把他的王牌标 签丢掉。 So why was 2016 so much different than 2015? In 2016 Cole had made 3 trips to the disabled list, and his first injury occurred in spring. It is likely he was never fully healthy at any point in the season. In the spring, he was suffering from inflammation in his ribs, and then over the course of the regular season he was placed on the disabled list twice for inflammation in his right elbow and once for a strained triceps. Elbow inflammation is a scary thing. Jameson Taillon started with elbow inflammation before it progressed to Tommy John surgery. Elbow inflammation doesn’t always end in Tommy John surgery, but it is a scary sign that the worst is yet to come. Hopefully, for Gerrit Cole’s and the Pirates sake, his elbow is completely healed and he won’t have to go under the needle in 2017. Gerrit Cole can touch high 90s with his fastball. Last year he had the 8th fastest fastball in the league for a starter at 95.2 mph. But, what turns him from a flamethrower into an ace, is his slider. In 2015, Cole’s slider was responsible for 41% of his strikeouts, and opponents hit just .200 against it. In 2016, that dipped to 31.6% and .275 respectively. 那2016和2015有什麽不一样？2016球季Cole进了三次DL，而且他第一次受伤是在春训，所 以有可能整个赛季他都没有完全健康过。春训时他的肋骨发炎，季中两次因为手肘发炎进 DL，还有一次是扭伤的三头肌。 手肘发炎是很可怕的。Taillon在动TJ手术之前也是从手肘发炎开始的。手肘发炎跟动TJ 手术并不能画上等号，但是还是很可怕，表示着可能有更严重的事情会发生。为了Cole和 海盗好，希望Cole的手肘已经医好，而且2017不用动刀。 Cole的速球可以丢到97mph以上，去年在全联盟先发投手，他速球球速95.2mph排行第八。 不过，能让他成为王牌而不只是火球男的，是他的滑球。2015年，Cole的三振次数有41% 是被滑球K掉的，对手打滑球只有两成打击率。2016年，三振次数只有31.6%是滑球贡献的 ，对手打击率也上升到0.275。 Last season, Cole’s biggest problem was getting out lefties. He allowed a .371 wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) to lefties last season, where as in 2015 he limited them to a .266 wOBA. To help put that into perspective, last year the league average wOBA was .318. So Cole went from about 50 points above average to 50 points below average in one year. This has never been an issue in the past. Cole has always been great against both lefties and righties, but now he has seemed to have developed quite an issue with lefties. Cole’s slider was his biggest issue against lefties last year. As you can see in the image below, his slider remained elite against righties but took a big hit against lefties. 上一季Cole最大的问题就是解决不了左打。2016左打的wOBA是0.371，2015则只有0.266。 2016全联盟平均wOBA是0.318，所以两季相比，Cole从优於联盟平均0.05变成劣於联盟平 均0.05。以前这不是问题，Cole对左打右打都很棒，不过现在他看起来对左打有不小的隐 忧。而他的滑球是对左打最大的问题。以下图表可以看出来，滑球对右打依然犀利，但是 被左打打得咪咪帽帽。 https://goo.gl/7K9hgv The image above shows his issues with the pitch last year. In 2015 Cole’s slider was responsible for a .151 AVG against lefties and almost doubled to a .294 average in 2016. That’s like going from facing Gerrit Cole as a batter to Starling Marte. 上图秀出了他的滑球在2016的问题。2015年Cole的滑球让左打的打击率只有0.151，但是 到了2016几乎倍增到了0.294。感觉就像是打击区本来是Gerrit Cole本人，但是後来换 成了Starling Marte一样。 https://goo.gl/8QoJaT The GIF above shows swings against Gerrit Cole’s slider. In 2015, the heatmap shows he had more swings in the bottom of the strike zone. In 2016, hitters started to swing at his slider when it was more in the middle of the plate, probably due to the fact that he threw it more in the middle of the plate. Not a good combination. His slider has also lost movement. His slider would more often break inside on hitters, but in 2016 it stayed out of the middle of the plate. That is concerning, but I think at least some of that can be disregarded as just side effects of not being healthy. Still, it is important that he gets his movement back on his slider or hitters will be able to crush it like in 2016. 这张GIF是对Cole的滑球挥击的样态。2015的时候打者大多在低角度挥击他的滑球，但是 2016的heatmap往好球带中央偏移了，或许是因为他的滑球在2016投得比较红中，这不是 什麽好事。 滑球的变化也不见了。原来他的滑球会往打者内侧转，但是2016年却停在红球带中央。 这值得留意，但我觉得可以先不用讨论，因为或许只是不够健康的关系。不过把滑球的 变化找回来还是很重要，不然打者跟2016一样可是会重击他的。 https://goo.gl/rzsIoP Here is another GIF that shows how often lefties swung at his slider. As you can see, they had a much easier time laying off of it down out of the strike zone in 2016 than they did in 2015. 这张GIF是另一个左打者打Cole滑球的呈现。看得出来，2016的打者对他的滑球比起2015 年更容易放掉了。 https://goo.gl/PNACyV This GIF shows the percentage of times that left handed hitters swung and missed at a pitch in the zone. As you can clearly see, in 2015 down and in was a huge issue for hitters. In 2016, they were able to lay off everything. 这张GIF秀的是左打者挥空滑球的比例。可以清楚地看出来，2015内角偏低的角度让左打 很痛苦，但是2016年，几乎什麽角度的滑球左打者都打得到。 Sliders are not typically meant to be used as an out pitch against lefties. But it has worked for him in the past, so there was no need to change it. A good third pitch to neutralize lefties, like a changeup, would certainly help propel Cole back to being an elite pitcher. 滑球一般来说不是对左打最大的武器，但是对Cole却很有效，所以没什麽好改变的。倒是 找到第三颗球路来对左打，可能会让Cole重返强投之林。 One of the stats that took a huge hit in 2016 was his K-BB%. In 2016 his K% decreased 5% and his BB% increased 1.8% compared to 2015. In total his K-BB was 12.3%. A large drop from his 19% in 2015. He went from being in the top 15% to the bottom 40% in just one year. K-BB%在2016衰退了很多。2016年他的K%掉了5%，BB%升高了1.8%。K-BB在2016是12.3%， 比起2015的19%是差了一大截，本来是联盟前15%，变成了联盟倒数40%。 There might be some room for optimism. Gerrit was likely not fully healthy at any point last year, and that could be the reason his slider had a drop in movement. He also had the 4th highest BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) in the league, just behind Mike Pelfrey. His slider of course had a .393 BABIP, an increase from his .319 the previous year. Its pretty unlikely that his BABIP will stay that high in 2017 as his career BABIP is .316. In 2015, in 2 strike counts Cole limited hitters to a .199 OBP and struck out hitters 46.6% and a .286 BABIP. In 2016, that moved all the way to a .302 OBP and a 38.4% strikeout percentage and a .412 BABIP. His average exit velocity went from 86.5% in 2015 to 87.7%. That is such a small increase that I think its highly likely that his .412 BABIP was just a case of bad luck. 或许还是有乐观的空间啦。Cole在2016年可能一刻是处在完全健康的状态之下，这或许是 滑球变化不够的原因。他是全联盟BABIP第四高的投手，滑球当然也很高，有0.393，在 2015年可是只有0.319而已。在2017他的BABIP很难会继续持续这麽高，毕竟他生涯平均是 0.316 2015年，两个好球时Cole让打者只有0.199的上垒率，三振掉了46.6%的打者，BABIP只有 0.286。在2016年这些数据都变差了。打者上垒率变成0.302，三振率降到38.4%。打者击 中球的速度只有增加一点，所以我认为那高达0.412的BABIP只是运气差罢了。 For Gerrit to improve in 2017, he needs to get his 2015 slider back. The 2016 version just isn’t going to cut it. If he could improve his changeup and throw that effectively, he could be even better than he was in 2015. Cole在2017年要进步，首先得把他2015的滑球找回来。如果他的变速球变强，而且有效 使用，他甚至有可能比2015更为优异。 Depth Charts, a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections, has him projected at 31 games, a 3.57 ERA, 8.26 K/9, and a 2.38 BB/9. I think Gerrit is capable of at least this. As long as he gets his slider back he should be around a 3.00 ERA pitcher and even if he doesn’t, I think he is at worst a 3.50 ERA pitcher. 基於ZiPS和Steamer的预测，Cole今年会投31场比赛，3.57 ERA，8.26 K/9和2.38 BB/9。 我认为以Cole的能力这只是低标。如果找得回他的滑球，他的ERA应该会在3附近，就算找 不回来，我认为他还是个防御率3.5的投手。 Gerrit will never be the ace that Pirates fans want without his slider. The high 90s heat with a meh slider just makes him a rich mans Nathan Eovaldi. I am optimistic that good health and Ray Searage can help Gerrit and get his slider back and become a dominant pitcher again in 2017. 没有好的滑球，Cole就不会是海盗球迷期待的那个王牌。火球不管再怎麽快，如果滑球很 鸟，那就顶多只是富人版的Eolvaldi。2017年有健康的身体，还有投手教练Searage帮忙 找回滑球，我对於Cole再度制霸，感到很乐观。 --

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