: There are lots of batting order studies. They're on the internet. You can : find them using this tool called Google. : "Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your : fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and : #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. : From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality." : Our 3 best hitters: Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Mike Lowell (for now) : Now, had somebody suggested that say Manny Ramirez hit LEADOFF, you'd be : all over his ass like stink on cheese. : From the same writers: : "If we go back to the real world of baseball, we realize that you can't hide a : batter. The best you can do is to defer him to the bottom of the batting : order. But even batting ninth, he will eventually come up" : Eventually Alex Gonzalez is coming up to hit. Just how often. : Now, this is one position on batting order : Another position on batting order: : "Batting order doesn't matter." : I believe the official Bill James party line on batting order is this: : (this is stolen from our good friend Debugger) : "不过到目前为止这个讨论分成两派。一派包含了酒吧里的看球专家、走传统路线的体育 : 作家、躺在沙发上看电视的球迷、call-in 节目中常打电话进去表示意见的人，这些人 : 相信打击顺序很重要。另一派则是真正对这个问题下过功夫，这些人在作过研究之後下 : 了结论，说不管打序怎麽安排，最後的得分数都会是差不多。至於要相信哪一派的说法 : ，你可以自己选择。" : Believe what you like. I buy the "doesn't matter" bit because it helps : reassure me that it doesn't matter that our manager is an idiot. : My personal belief is that yes, it does matter, for a good team on the : threshold. An optimal batting order over a "decent" batting order, optimizes : what, 5 extra runs a season? Yes, that makes or breaks a season, but only : with a decent team like the Red Sox. If you're the Royals, it wouldn't : matter anyway, 5 runs isn't stopping you from taking the 1st overall position : in next's entry draft. Hopefully they'll spend money on a high school pitcher : with gas. : Kind of like your motehr smoking while preganant with you, or not smoking. : It would have helped that your mother DIDN'T smoke while she was pregnant, : but you were going to be fucking retarded ANYWAY regardless of the smoking. : You didn't have chance. Just like the Royals 其实在hard ball time里面有一篇文章有提到如何安排棒次 里面也引用了别人拿1989年到2002年的资料来分析 http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296 在这个分析跑出来的结果发现如果第一棒的OBP多.021那麽整季将会多得10 这通常意味着多了一胜 另外这篇文章里面的建line up的规则大概是来自於 The Book 这一本书 http://www.insidethebook.com/ The Book Says: Your three best hitters should bat somewhere in the #1, #2 and #4 slots. Your fourth- and fifth-best hitters should occupy the #3 and #5 slots. The #1 and #2 slots will have players with more walks than those in the #4 and #5 slots. From slot #6 through #9, put the players in descending order of quality. 另外有一个规则是这样子的 The second leadoff hitter theory exists. You can put your pitcher in the eighth slot and gain a couple of extra runs per year 所以把最弱棒放在第八棒，让第九棒跟第一棒连线也不是不可以的事 本版1519篇benchman把这篇文章的大意说了一下，有兴趣可以看看 -- --

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