10 Questions With Daryl Morey Future Rockets GM talks about the numbers, the draft and the future ahead MONDAY, MAY 22, 2006 3:01 AM CST By Clutch Copyright 2006 ClutchFans.net http://www.clutchfans.net/news/1316/10_questions_with_daryl_morey Translated by 手型不再@hoopchina http://bbs.hoopchina.com/read.php?tid=96432 --- 首先，欢迎来到休斯敦。这里的人对你怎麽样？ 他们对我真是棒极了。每个人似乎都是火箭的拥趸，我遇到的球迷都是见多识广的人物。我 们将每周举行一次早餐会，邀请一些已经购买或者计划购买的季票拥有者，他们对球队的热 情支持让人非常感动。如果您有意成为季票拥有者并参加我们的聚会，请与我们联系。 在你进入NBA後，你的名字和对你的聘用似乎永远都会和「商业篮球」（Moneyball）联系在 一起，你觉得这是个公允的评价吗？现在越来越多的球队都聘请了数据分析专家，许多交易 也是纯粹为了「工资帽」问题，NBA越来越靠数据说话了？ 我注意到我的职业生涯和对我的雇佣是大环境变化的体现，团队的决策更加依赖客观凭据（ 数据，资料，信息……）的应用，以改进预测，预见检验假设，等等。客观凭据的应用在许 多产业都获得了成功，在商业体育(Moneyball by the Oakland A's）一书中风光无限，在 波士顿红袜队，新英格兰爱国者队等等球队也获得了成功。亚历山大先生一段时间以来一直 处在这股潮流的前沿，我的聘任刚好是他的改进措施中更广为人知的一项而已。我们的决策 过程所具有的这一优势将增大我们赢得篮球比赛的机会。 从商业运作到篮球管理的角色转换中，什麽是你最大的挑战？ 其实这不算真正的转变。在波士顿我同时负责篮球和商业的运作。在火箭唯一的改变就是我 将专注於篮球方面，这比我要遇到的挑战更加令人兴奋，越是集中精力，越有可能交出更好 的答卷。 你希望或者说期望下赛季从Carroll Dawson身边学到些什麽？你和他处得怎麽样了？ 我们的关系好极了。能有机会和他共事真的非常幸运。除了从他的经验中汲取营养，我还盼 着他帮我提高弹跳，他培养球员的能力可是被低估了。 你认为火箭最大的弱点是什麽，对此你打算如何改善？你认为解决现在困扰火箭的问题需要 一到两年来调整来还是会花费更多的时间？ 有了翠喜儿和明明我们的目标就是每年都要有能挑战冠军的班底。那就是说，我们要建设一 支稳定的常胜队伍，这就需要时间去做出许多决定，会比一年的时间来的要长。我通常不会 公开谈论球员名单上的缺陷，这对我们没有好处。 NBA选秀就在五周之後，在选秀时要评估大学球员和外籍球员，对他们经历过的不同规则， 联盟和比赛强度的给出评判，你将如何运用数据分析在这些方面？ 将不同的规则，联盟和比赛强度都考虑进去，并且对这些信息对最终决策的影响赋予适当的 权重。无论在什麽情况下，收集客观凭据总是好的，重要的是你会给你收集到的客观凭据以 多大的权重。 哪种类型（位置，风格或者其他的）的球员是火箭这次选秀需要的？ 由於现在的劳资协议在四年的新秀合同中加入了主队在第五年拥有限制权条款（即优先选择 ），我们在第一轮选中的球员将是那个和火箭共渡职业生涯的人（交易除外）。因此，得到 一个最好的球员的权重大於一个最合适的球员的权重。（跟老鹰的总经理一样哦） 许多分析家感觉今年选秀前列的球员不是很强，但是很多有潜力的新人可能会落到第二轮。 在你初步看来，第32位选秀权（来自尼克斯）价值如何？ 我相信我们会在32位获得一位能有重要贡献的NBA水准的球员——即使不在他的第一年，那 也是在不久的将来 Vassilis Spanoulis仍然在欧洲深造，球队希望他下赛季能出现在火箭的名单上吗？ 我们相信Vassilis是NBA级的球员。不过，所有对球员的选择，都要以长远的眼光来看，你 得掂量是把钱花在他身上还是其他的选择上，哪一个会最好。所以关於他的决定会在夏天结 束时做出。 最後一个问题：你有从MIT给我们带来一个能在星期二抽到状元签的神奇方程吗？ 是的，我从MIT带来了最初的原型，Patrick Ewing帮助加工成了最终产品（尤因是第一届状 元）。我们给CD打了招呼了，他已经准备好了。 原文如下： 10 Questions With Daryl Morey Future Rockets GM talks about the numbers, the draft and the future ahead MONDAY, MAY 22, 2006 3:01 AM CST By Clutch Copyright 2006 ClutchFans.net First off, welcome to Houston. How have the city and fans treated you so far? The response has been really great. The Rockets are a team that everyone seems to get behind and the fans I have met are very knowledgeable. We are holding weekly breakfast meetings with current or prospective season ticket holders and the passion for the team is impressive. If you are interested in potentially becoming a season ticket holder and taking part in these meetings, please contact the Rockets. Your name and hiring will probably be forever linked to "Moneyball" arriving in the NBA. Do you feel that is a fair assessment? With more teams hiring statistical analysts and so many trades these days being made strictly for "cap purposes", has the NBA become much more numbers-oriented? I see my career and hiring as part of a larger trend of decision making in organizations being augmented by the use of objective evidence ("numbers", "data", "information", ...) to improve forecasting, to test assumptions before acting on them, etc... This use of objective evidence has been very successful in many industries and famously in the book Moneyball by the Oakland A's but has also been successful at the Boston Red Sox, New England Patriots, etc... Mr. Alexander has been on the leading edge of this trend for some time, my hiring just happens to be more public than the other improvements he has made. An edge in our decision making will increase our chance of winning basketball games. In switching from the operations side to the basketball side, what will be your biggest challenge? both basketball and business. The only change at the Rockets is I am focused exclusively on basketball, which is more exciting than challenging as greater focus will increase the chance of greater results. What do you hope/expect to learn working closely with Carroll Dawson next season and how has your relationship been with him thus far? The relationship has been tremendous, I am really lucky to have the opportunity to work with him. Besides tapping into and learning from his experience, I am expecting he will help me improve my jumper. His ability to develop players is under-appreciated. What is the biggest weakness you see in the Rockets and how do you plan on addressing it moving forward? Do you think what ails the Rockets is a 1 or 2 year fix or something that may take longer? While we have Tracy and Yao our goal is to each year develop a roster that is championship caliber. That said, we also are going to build a consistent winner which requires that the time horizon on many of our decisions be longer than just one year. I generally will avoid publicly discussing what I see as weaknesses in our roster as that info can put us at a competitive disadvantage. The NBA Draft is a little over 5 weeks away. How do you apply your statistical analysis to the draft when scouting college and foreign players, given the varying rules, conferences and levels of competition that these prospects have faced? You take those varying rules, conferences, and levels of competition into account and weight the use of that information into the final decision appropriately. It is always better to gather objective evidence than not, no matter what the situation. The important step is how much weight you give the objective evidence you have gathered. What type of player (position, style or otherwise) will the Rockets be looking for out of this draft? Because the current CBA includes four year rookie contracts with restriction rights in the 5th year, the player we draft in the 1st round will be one that will be with the Rockets his whole career (barring a trade). Because of this, going with the best player available is weighted higher and team fit (position, style, etc...) is weighted lower. Many analysts feel the top of this draft is not that strong, but there are many potential contributors that could extend to the second round. In your early look at the draft, how valuable does that 32nd pick in the draft (via the Knicks) look to be? at the NBA level -- if not in his first year then shortly after. Vassilis Spanoulis continues to improve in Europe. Is it the team's hope to have him on the Rocket roster next season? We believe Vassilis is a NBA player. As with all player decisions, however, you have to weigh the use of money on him vs. other options and go with what is best in the larger picture so a decision on him will play out over the summer. Last question: Did you bring us a magical stat formula from MIT that can get us the #1 pick Tuesday? Yes. After an initial prototype I brought from MIT, Patrick Ewing contributed to the final product and we have briefed Carroll so he is ready Tuesday. -- ClutchFans.net News Archives --

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