https://tinyurl.com/yc54u5tm CARMELO ANTHONY: GREAT SHOOTER, BAD SHOTS He’s known as an elite offensive player (and a defensive liability), but he hasn’t actually been efficient on offense. That’s the enigma that is Carmelo Anthony. It’s a big reason why Oklahoma City, which is both a championship contender and a big spender, was looking to unload his contract this offseason. 他是个精英进攻球员(以及防守端累赘)，但他从来没有在进攻端变得高效过，这是Melo的 未解之谜，这也是OKC作为一支冠军竞争者以及不怎缺钱的球队，在这个休赛季抛弃他合 约的最大理由。 Of the 114 players that took at least 700 FGA last season, Carmelo was 105th in Points Per Shot (PPS). His 0.95 points per shot would be the equivalent of feeding a 31.7% 3-point shooter, like Evan Turner or Emmanuel Mudiay, behind the arc. Even Brandon Ingram and Ish Smith were more efficient than Carmelo. 上赛季在114名球员至少出手700次的球员当中，Melo的PPS排名105，他的0.95PPS相当於 一个31.7%三分命中率的等球射手，大概相当於Evan Turner 或者 Emmanuel Mudiay在弧 顶投三分，即使是Brandon Ingram和Ish Smith效率都还比Melo高。 http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture1.png It’s not that Carmelo is a bad shooter; he’s an excellent shooter. The problem is his shot selection. Like almost every NBA player, Carmelo is inefficient from mid-range. His 0.786 is the equivalent of shooting 26% from 3. 这并不意味着Melo是个差劲的射手，相反的他是个优秀的射手。他问题在於出手选择，他 就跟大部分的NBA球员一样，在中距离很低效。他的0.786PPS相当於一个26%的三分等球射 手。 Again, almost every NBA player is inefficient from mid-range. For example, James Harden averaged 0.782 points per shot from this region last season. A big difference between Harden and Carmelo is that Anthony took 460 mid-range jumpers (to Harden’s 128). Would you want a 26% 3-point shooter taking 460 3-pointers for your team? Carmelo takes the most shots from the area where he is the least efficient. 再强调一次，大部分的NBA球员中距离都很低效。举例，Harden上赛季在这距离的出手平 均为0.782PPS。而两者间最大不同则在於Melo出手460次(Harden128次)。你会想要一个 26%三分命中率的射手在你的球队中出手460个三分吗?而Melo就是在他最低效的区域出手 了大部分球权。 http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture2.png But now Carmelo joins Houston, the NBA’s leader in shot selection. While Oklahoma City still relied on the mid-range for 22% of their FGA, Houston led the NBA with just 8% of their FGA coming from these inefficient jumpers. 但Melo加入了火箭，一支在出手选择上领先全联盟的球队。当OKC还在依赖占了他们总出 手22%的中距离时，火箭就已经把这个最低效的跳投选择压到了剩8%。 http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture3.png Houston shot selection worked. They averaged 1.15 points per possession, the best in the NBA. In fact, 1.15 points per possession was the 10th most efficient NBA season ever and the 3rd most efficient season of the last 20 years (only behind the 2009-10 Suns and 2016-17 Warriors). 火箭这出手选择起了作用，他们1.15PPP是NBA最佳。事实上，1.15PPP是有史以来第10佳 的进攻效率赛季，而在过去20年来，为第3佳的进攻效率赛季(仅次於09-10太阳以及16-17 勇士)。 Consider how Carmelo’s shot selection compared to Houston’s top two scorers, Harden and Chris Paul, and to Trevor Ariza, who Houston lost to free agency and whose minutes Carmelo is likely to replace. 将Melo的出手选择与火箭两大头号得分手Harden、CP3，以及Ariza去相互做比较。 39% of Carmelo’s FGA came from mid-range, while only 9% of Harden’s FGA came from that zone. Ariza, who played largely off the ball, saw only 1% of his FGA from mid-range. Even Chris Paul, who is one of the league’s most efficient mid-range shooters, took a significantly lower percentage of his FGA from mid-range than Carmelo. Melo中距离占39%总出手数，而Harden只有9%。Ariza，他大部分时间都打无球，只占1%， 即使是CP3这种联盟最高效的中距离射手，也比Melo少很多。 If we want to get a sense of how Houston’s offensive system might impact Carmelo’s shot selection, Chris Paul is a valuable case study. Paul jumped from the Clippers to the Rockets a year ago, and saw his percentage of FGA from mid-range drop from 41% to 23%. 如果我们想知道火箭进攻体系将会如何影响Melo进攻选择，那麽CP3就是个最具价值的例 子。CP3在一年之前从快艇转到火箭，而他的中距离比例从41%降到23%。 http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture5.png And remember, Chris Paul is one of the NBA’s best from mid-range. Carmelo is not. Do not expect Houston to stomach inefficient deep twos from Anthony. 别忘了，CP3是联盟中最好的中距离射手之一，而Melo则不是。别期待火箭会去容忍Melo 那低效的长两分出手。 http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture4.png But let’s go back to Trevor Ariza’s shot selection. It’s likely Carmelo will fill Ariza’s role in many of Houston’s offensive sets. Ariza took almost no mid-range jumpers. Instead, he relied heavily on corner and above-the-break 3s. When Ariza did attack inside the arc, he typically went all the way to the hoop. Expect Carmelo’s shot selection next season to venture in this direction, and that’s a good thing for Carmelo and Houston. 回头过来看Ariza的出手选择，很可能Melo会扮演Ariza在进攻端脚色。Ariza几乎没出手 中距离，相反的，他更依赖大量的底角以及弧顶三分。当Ariza在三分线内出手，基本上 他就是进攻篮框。若Melo的进攻选择能朝这方向走，那麽对火箭以及Melo是好事。 Houston relies heavily on the individual skills of both Harden and Paul in the offense. Often, one of the two has the ball at the top of the key. Either off a big man’s screen or in isolation, Harden or Paul will look to penetrate. (According to NBA. com, Houston averaged 15.6 isolation possessions per game, four more than any other team.) To give these attacking players the most space possible, Houston makes sure to space to the 3-point line with their other perimeter players. 火箭进攻大量的仰赖於Harden以及CP3的个人技巧，经常其中一个就待在弧顶。两者都会 透过长人掩护或者单打来破解防守(据NBA. Com，火箭场均15.6次单打回合，比其他球队 高出4次)，火箭会用外线三分球来拉开空间，确保这些进攻球员尽可能地拥有越多的空间 。 Expect Carmelo to play the role of spacer most often. If his man collapses to help on Harden or Paul’s drive, those teammates will kick to Carmelo for 3. On catch-and-shoot threes last season, Carmelo averaged 1.12 PPS. On wide-open threes, he averaged an excellent 1.27 PPS. 预计Melo大部分时间都会扮演拉空间的脚色。若对位Melo的防守者去协防Harden或者CP3 的切入，那麽Melo会接到传球投三分。上赛季Melo C&S平均为1.12PPS，空档三分为优秀 的1.27PPS。 Carmelo has the ability to be an excellent offensive player, and the key to unlocking that ability is shot selection. No team optimizes shot selection like the Rockets. If Houston can reduce Anthony’s mid-range attempts while getting him more open catch-and-shoot threes, expect his 2018-19 scoring to more closely resemble what’s in the following table. Melo有能力成为一个优秀的进攻球员，而关键在於解锁Melo投篮选择。没有哪支球队在优 化投篮选择方面能比肩火箭，若火箭能减少Melo中距离出手，同时给他更多空档C&S 三分 ，那麽可以期待他的18-19得分会很接近如下表格所示。 http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture6.png Recall that Carmelo’s 0.95 PPS in 2017-18 ranked 105th among 114 players with at least 700 FGA. He was one of the least efficient high-usage players. At 1.12 PPS, he’d rank 19th, better than Kyle Lowry, Anthony Davis, Chris Paul, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Melo17-18赛季，0.97PPS在114名至少出手700次的球员中排名105，他是联盟中进攻最低 效的高USG球员之一。而1.12PPS则排名19，比Kyle Lowry, Anthony Davis, Chris Paul, and Giannis Antetokounmpo还优秀。 As the table shows, if Houston can alter Carmelo’s shot selection, they’ll also be able to get an additional 2.5 points from him on the same quantity of shots he saw in Oklahoma City. 2.5 points may not seem like a lot, but if everything else remains the same, an additional 2.5 points per game projects to an additional six wins. 如表格所示，若火箭能改变Melo出手选择，他每次出手都能得到额外的2.5分，在OKC这额 外2.5分看起来可能不多，但所有方面都保持不变的话，这每场额外的2.5分可以多6胜。 In a basketball game, each team gets approximately the same number of possessions. The team that is the most efficient with those possessions wins. When it comes to shots, teams and players can increase their efficiency in two ways. They can shoot a higher percentage on the shots they take. Or, they can take better shots. 在篮球比赛中，每支球队的回合数都差不多，所以每一回合更高效的那支球队会赢球。谈 到投篮，能让球队以及球员提升效率有两种方式，他们要嘛提高命中率，不然就是去投那 更好的出手选择。 Carmelo has always been a shot-maker. He has elite offensive ability. But as the league has trended to better shot selection, Carmelo hasn’t adjusted. If any team can right this ship, it’s Houston, and if they do, Carmelo will return to being one of the NBA’s elite offensive players and Houston might have enough to overtake the Warriors and reach the NBA Finals. Melo一直以来都是那种可以自行创造出手空间的球员，他有着精英进攻能力，但是现在联 盟趋势是更好的出手选择，而Melo从来没对此调整过。如果说有哪支球队能修正，这会是 火箭，如果他们这麽做了，那麽Melo会回归成为NBA中精英进攻球员之一，火箭也许就有 足够能力去超车勇士抵达总决赛。 不错的文章 随手翻了一下 说明了Melo为何进攻如此低效(以现代的角度看) 出手选择伤害了效率 --

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