再度跟各位虎视眈眈的酸民强调： 能不能拿冠军不是拎北讲的，不要栽赃拎北护航造神。 They just that good, 但是冠军只有一个， 我才不会期待去年 .500 的胜率的球队今年就会拿冠军。 至於去年下半季是不是「近况」，全美国媒体自有公断。 FEB 2 12:46PM ET Sixers contenders? Time to decide 七六人具备挑战大位的能力了吗？现在已经到了初步揭开黑盒子的时间了。 By Henry Abbott - ESPN.com http://tinyurl.com/897vehm Justin Kubatko, of Basketball-Reference, doesn't mess around with numbers. He doesn't get all excited about things that don't matter. And the other day in The New York Times he wrote: Basketball-Reference.com 专栏作家 Justin Kubatko， 在面对他手上的数据的时候他从来不会过度乐观， 但也不会为了结论而硬凑。 但是那天他对纽约时报表示以下言论： There have been 38 teams in N.B.A. history with a point differential of at least plus-10.0 points a game through their first 18 games. The median winning percentage of those teams was .753, which translates to 49.7 wins over a 66-game season. Additionally, 24 of those teams advanced to the N.B.A. finals, with 19 claiming the championship. In short, mediocre teams do not go on extended runs in which they routinely outscored opponents by double-digit margins. If history serves as a guide, Philadelphia is a contender. 在NBA长久的历史当中， 只有三十八支球队能够在前面十八场比赛能够维持十分以上的净胜分差。 他们总共平均有着 .753 的胜率，而且如果以本季的赛程长度来换算， 这些球队平均可以在 66 场比赛拿到 49.7 场胜利。 而且，这当中有 24 支球队能够打进 NBA 总冠军战， 其中的十九支球队拿下了冠军。 长话短说，这代表着如果你只是个二流球队， 那你是没办法常常把出场给对手迎头痛击， 把赢个十几二十分当作吃饭睡觉一样简单。 如果历史数据可以拿来当作参考， 那麽今年的七六人，显然具备了挑战冠军的能力。 In other words, there are interesting numbers to suggest the Sixers are even money to win the title this year. Which is one nutty thing to suggest. On the other hand, half the teams that have started this hot in NBA history did not win the title. And there is good reason to suspect these Sixers may fall into that category. They have played just about the easiest schedule in the NBA. When they have played the power teams on the road they have generally lost -- at Portland, at Utah, at New York, and badly at Miami. They have also lost at home to the Nuggets and (gulp) Nets. 好我们来解释一下这代表什麽： 从好得一方面来解释，第三十九支达到这个标准的七六人， 跟历史上曾经出现的这些球队一样有着一致的机会可以拿到总冠军。 但是从另外衣方面解读，有一半开季这麽火热的队伍， 却没有办法最後赢得总冠军。 这的确是全世界大部分球迷与媒体的心中， 对七六人比较Make sense的解释，因为真的有很好的理由， 认为现在这支七六人的却没办法达到这个高度。 他们有着全联盟数一数二软的 schedule， 而且当他们在客场面对比较强悍的球队的时候常有着差强人意的表现， 例如在 last second 输给拓荒者、爵士、尼克，还有大比分输给热火。 甚至在主场他们也在延长赛输给了鸡块 (Iggy你给我去练习罚球!)还有篮网(..)。 The wins have come against the softest of the soft, and compromised teams. They beat the Pacers without Danny Granger or George Hill. They beat the Magic during their weird funk. The Sixers are also deep, with a high-octane bench attack starring Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young and Evan Turner. Maybe this is the team that has cracked the code on the lockout-shortened, condensed schedule -- an advantage that will fade in the playoffs, when every team gets adequate rest between games. 而赢球的比赛也不是没得怀疑。 他们可能赢了一些软柿子当中最软的一些球队，还有一些不是最佳状况的球队。 例如他们面对溜马的时候，妙丽跟 George Hill是缺阵的。 他们面对魔术则是在他们刚成为奥兰多五六人的这段时间。 不过七六人也不是全无本钱可言， 他们有着全联盟最靠北的板凳，当中的成员包括了 Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner。 但是：对七六人这样的球队而言， 缩水球季取得的优势与较为轻松的行程在季後赛都是不存在的， 每一场比赛中间都是有day-off的，这些因素都可能让七六人在季後赛倒下。 Put it all together, and you have to wonder about projecting titles based on their margin of victory. You simply can't see them hanging with the likes of the Bulls and the Heat in the East. Or, at least, you couldn't, until Wednesday night: 好吧，把这些因素加总进去考虑， 你可能会赶到好奇，基於胜分差的考虑把他们加入冠军实力者的考虑名单是否妥当。 甚至他们还没有展现出如何对抗像是公牛与热火这样的东区强队。 但是现在建议你看看这个： (七六人对公牛 highlight片段，七六人98比82大胜公牛，点原文有影片) You can discount the win because of the injured Luol Deng. But it was still a rare blowout of the Bulls, who have been excellent even without Deng. And the Sixers are missing the star of their early success: Spencer Hawes. The Bulls are one of the NBA's best defensive teams, which tends to keep games close even when their own shots aren't falling. But even without a go-to interior scorer -- really on the basis of spacing and guard penetration -- the Sixers rattled off big runs. A 16-2 run is often big enough to win a game, and the Sixers had one of those in the first half. Later they added runs of 6-0, 11-1 and 13-5. In contrast, the Bulls' best run was 10-2, and came in garbage time. 当然你可以强调这只牛少了他们超级稳定的卤蛋(Luol Deng)， 但是毫无疑问的，七六人面对公牛打出了一场货真价实的blowout game， 而这只球队在少了卤蛋仍然能够在东区维持挂头牌的竞争力。 而且，七六人也不是没少什麽东西， 他们失去了他们的高位战术中心，进攻效率的重要指标：鼠王Spencer Hawes。 公牛是全联盟防守最好的球队之一， 他们在还能把球投进篮框的时候，他们总是能把比分咬住， 不至於失去他们的竞争力。 但是因为他们失去了大心脏的得分机器 (基於他们的的後卫群有着极强的切入能力，这在进攻阵型上的伤害不可谓不大) 七六人抓住机会狂打公牛脚痛，打开了高潮。 一个 16-2 的攻势通常就足够瓦解对手迎接胜利， 七六人上半场打了一波 16-2, 下半场又分别打了 6-0, 11-1, 13-5三波高潮。 公牛最大的一波高潮是一波10-2，但是那是第四节垃圾时间的事情了。 The Bulls simply didn't know how to beat this young, athletic, selfless team that is going hard every second at both ends of the floor. The Sixers don't turn the ball over much at all, they resist the urge to foul. Their best player, Andre Iguodala, is suddenly hitting shots like crazy. However hard it has been to believe numbers that say the Sixers are serious contenders, it's getting easier now. 这只牛看起来完全找不到七六人的任何一丝空隙， 他们面对这支年轻、有活力/运动能力且无私的球队显得一筹莫展， 七六人在攻守两端贯彻始终，不放弃任何一秒的打法让公牛显得有气无力。 而且费城没有犯错，从头到尾都没什麽失误，也没有给出任何愚蠢的犯规。 他们阵中毫无疑问最好的球员 Andre Iguodala， 在球队需要他的时候，如雷霆万钧一般挺身而出疯狂取分(按:在第三节开始连拿七分) 如果只有看之前的数据让你难以相信七六人是个夺冠的有力竞争者， 那现在应该可以让你对这支球队认真看待。 And it matters. It really matters. Here are two of the big questions the Sixers' early success raises: 而且这不只是推论，他们真的有这个实力。 但是这里有两个重要的问号值得大家对这支七六人的成功有所考虑： Still rebuilding? This team was in the middle of being rebuilt. (The team's big promise to fans in the preseason: Cheaper tickets!) The two big contracts -- Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand -- featured in rumors all over the place. And I would have to think that's still plan A. This cute little winning streak plays perfectly, inflating the entire roster's value. The new owners have better cards to play than ever. Unless it's more than just a cute little winning streak. Unless this team really is built, right now, to beat the likes of the Bulls in a playoff series. In which case, why on earth would you touch anything? 七六人真的重建完了？ (当卖方?) 之前的七六人看起来像是正在重建之中的球队。 (新老板对球迷这个球季最大的保证：我们有更便宜的票~~ ╮(╯_╰)╭ ) 球队当中最高薪的两位key player: EB 跟 AI9 显然出现在所有的谣言论坛中。 而且我怀疑也许交易掉他们的key player仍然是制服组的A计画。 目前本季七六人取得这可爱的小小成功，也许正好是制服组的好机会， 因为他们整个阵容的交易价值都上升了。 现在新老板 Joshua Harris 手上有更多的好牌让他可以在交易市场大显身手。 但是，麻烦再多考虑一下，七六人真的还要当卖方？ 现在这个团队完成了不只是一波小小的高潮， 他们已经有了强队的雏型， 也许已经足以在季後赛的殿堂当中击败像是公牛一般的对手， 如果这些都不是幻觉，现在的七六人在地表上面应该很少有真正作不到的事情。 (按:无疑表示，现在拆散这组核心是愚蠢的) A good team to join? Let's take this even one step further. If the Sixers really do have a young team that shares the ball, competes hard at both ends, listens to the coach, looks out for each other, and wins a ton ... that sounds a lot like the Thunder East. Throw in a top-five market with a rich basketball history, and you're talking about the kind of team a superstar might want to force their way to. Dwight Howard, for instance, would be joining athletic committed defenders who would be only too happy to have a real post presence on the offensive end. It's hard to imagine having your choice of the Nets and Sixers and picking the Nets, the way things are going on the court right now. Teams seldom coalesce the way the Sixers already have. 七六人对大牌球星有任何的吸引力吗？ (当买方?) 让我们认真考虑一下， 如果七六人真的有一个善於分享进攻、攻守两端都百分之百专注、 受教、互相提醒与合作、并且赢了一拖拉库的比赛... 这听起来很像是东区的雷霆。 如果七六人想要在这个史上可能前五的买方市场里面钓大鱼， 那必须就要先确定七六人对於真正的Superstar到底有没有吸引力。 就拿Dwight Howard举例好了， 他也许会感到异常兴奋， 因为如果他加入一群年轻且能力已经被认证的防守球员之中， 他会是唯一且货真价实的post up guy(这当然会让他感到高兴)。 而且其实很容易理解，如果今天他必须在篮网跟七六人当中任选一个， 用膝盖想也知道他会加入七六人， 因为一个普通的球队很难达到现在七六人程度的成熟团队，也许就只差一个什麽。 Everything in the preceding two paragraphs can be seen as various forms of jumping the gun. Those are decisions that echo for decades, and this team has been good for about five weeks. The smart thing is to conclude nothing, for now. But the pressing thing is that there's only six weeks, before the March 15 trade deadline. Over this next month-and-a-half, the Sixers could defy Kubatko's projections and become the average team everybody thought they were going to be. They could, in other words, rejoin the majority of teams essentially waiting for a miracle. 这两种可能方案看起来差异巨大且充满诱惑，但是七六人已经走在这个关键点。 他们做出的任何决定，都可能影响接下来的十年。 但是如果你的球队已经累积了至少五个礼拜的成功， 那最聪明的事情就是拜托不要碰他，让子弹继续飞一会儿，至少现在不要。 但是媒体在 3/15 交易截止日之前的六个礼拜是不会放过他们的。 在这一个半月当中，七六人官方当然可以无视 Kubatko 的预测， 而选择让他们的球队变得跟原本大家所想得一样平凡。 他们当然可以选择加入原本那个持续等待奇蹟的大集团，期待这个跟那个发生。 (按:指的是现在当一个卖方是愚蠢的) Or they could keep playing beyond everyone's expectations, and create their own miracle right here, right now, this season -- either by keeping up what they have been doing, making advantageous trades or, unthinkable a few weeks ago, getting their hooks into a fully empowered superstar like Dwight Howard. The Heat come to town on Friday. If the Sixers win that one too, it'll be easy to start thinking very big. 但是他们当然能够选择继续打破更多人的眼镜， 而且在此时此刻「自行创造奇蹟」，没错就是现在，在此，这个球季， 他们可以选择继续作他们已经做的很好的事情， 或者在核心不受损的情况下，迎来另外一个像是Dwight Howard的超级巨星。 热火将会在星期五造访费城(美国时间，也就是台北时间明天早上)， 如果七六人能够赢得这场比赛的胜利，他们当然可以开始为今年的总冠军， 好好思考一下到底该怎麽作。 The only thing that's certain about all that is that the big decisions will have to be made very soon, long before it's at all certain how good this team really is. 但是无论七六人想要作什麽重大决定，都必须快。 光阴不等人，交易截止日一下子就过去了， 在众人理解到七六人真正的实力之前，就必须做出抉择。 UPDATE: Jeff Fogle of Hoopdata e-mails an important follow-up: We'll know more on March 1st. Friday vs. Miami Saturday at Atlanta Monday vs. the Lakers Wednesday vs. the Spurs Friday vs. the Clippers Saturday at Cleveland The Magic, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Rockets and Thunder all follow in February. 补充说明： Hoopdata.com的专栏作家 Jeff Fogle 有来信补充一些重点 在三月一号之前，七六人是龙是虎，应该就会明朗， 原因是他们接下来的赛程会更具有监别度。 Fri vs Miami Sat @ Atlanta Mon vs LA Lakers Fri vs LA Clippers Sat @ Cleveland 而在这段赛程之後，二月七六人还会碰到以下对手： 魔术、小牛、灰狼、灰熊、火箭、雷霆。 Not tough at all in terms of the fatigue of back-to-backs ... but very tough in terms of good teams in the mix and two road sequences. Philly has played 14 home games and only eight road games so far. 当然不是每一场都很硬，毕竟没有太多疲累的B2B赛程， 但是这毕竟是要对上各式各样不同的强队，并且有两段连续的客场赛程。 七六人目前打了14场主场(联盟第一多)但是却只有八场客场。 Philly's getting lumped in with some super teams that had much tougher paths to +10.0 or better in differential. How much would the math sink if Philly played Indiana's schedule to start things off (seven home games, 14 road games so far, but a 15-6 record that includes road wins at Chicago, Lakers, Boston, and Orlando)? I've been waiting for this gauntlet to arrive to get a better sense of Philly's playoff potential. Glad it's finally here! 费城目前对上某些强大的对手感到艰难， 面对这样高强度的赛程，这应该对他们目前领先联盟的两位净胜分有所影响。 如果七六人打得赛程如同溜马一般强硬(形容二月那段赛程真的很硬)， 试想看看，如果七六人去打溜马的赛程，他们漂亮的胜分差会下降多少呢？ (原按:溜马到现在只有打七场主场，却打了14场客场， 但是他们也是有着15-6的战绩，并且在客场可以对公牛、湖人、赛尔提克、魔术取胜) (译按:原作者的意思是，如果七六人挺过这段时间仍然能保持他们的数字， 就代表他们有足够的资格成为一个实质意义上的冠军竞争者。) 我正在等待七六人经过这段时间的表现与成长， 这能够初步判定七六人在季後赛能走得多远。 在此祝福他们能够成为真正意义上的冠军实力者！ --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.129.113.64 ※ 编辑: willyt 来自: 220.129.113.64 (02/03 10:49)