Updated: February 6, 2012, 5:24 PM ET What's the ceiling for the Sixers? The 76ers are in good shape now, but what about the future? 七六人的极限在哪里？ 费城的小家伙现在的状况非常好，但是他们的前景如何？ (PER Diem: Feb. 6, 2012) By John Hollinger, ESPN.com (Insider) With Andre Iguodala leading the way, the Sixers appear in good shape in the Atlantic Division. 伊姬率领着他的一干兄弟，让七六人现在看起来是大西洋组的新兴强权。 So … can we take the Sixers seriously yet? 那...我们应该开始对七六人认真了吗？ Philly feasted on a soft early schedule, but the Sixers' current stretch of games against elite teams (one that continues Monday against the Lakers) provided further proof of their legitimacy. The Sixers pounded the Bulls and embarrassed the Magic despite missing both their starting and backup centers. One would think this might be problematic against the league's best offensive rebounding team and its most dominant center, but it was no problem. They followed that over the weekend with a setback against the Heat before pounding the Hawks into submission in Atlanta on Saturday. 七六人的战绩当然跟他们前阵子软柿子大进补有关， 但是他们现在真的打败了一些顶尖的队伍(尤其刚刚才把湖人跟Kobe一起ups送回家)， 证明了他们是真货，而且可以持续长时间维持这样的表现。 而且，在失去了他们一双主战中锋(Hawes and Vucevic)之後， 七六人依然可以完成对公牛的重击，并且让魔术的进攻看起来像是一场笑话。 而且面对魔术的时候，这可是一个扎实的挑战， 他们是全联盟最会抓进攻篮板的球队， 而他们的主将基本上可以等同於联盟最具有宰制力量的中锋， 但是失去了中流砥柱的七六人依然无视於这些眼前的挑战而取得胜利。 这个礼拜他们还在周日战胜了老鹰，虽然大比分输给热火非常令人失望， 但是这周的战果丰硕。 With a third of the season in the books, Philly is third in the Power Rankings and leads the NBA in margin of victory. The schedule has undoubtedly helped -- it is both the second easiest by opponent strength and one of the most home-heavy (15 in Philly, just nine away) -- but it's not like the Sixers have been skating by. 球季走了三分之一，费城目前在Hollinger's Daily Power Rankings排第三， 并且在净胜分差领先全联盟(并且也是唯一维持两位数字的，今天刚好10.0) 虽然之前的软柿子们(包拓联盟第二软的对手强度，以及最多场次的主场) 确实有让这些数字变得比较好看， 但是这不影响这些数字背後所代表的意义：七六人真的有这个实力。 If anything, they've been unfortunate, actually. Only six of their games were decided by seven points or fewer, and Philly lost five of them. Their only win in that group was the Orlando game, when they were humiliating the Magic with their suffocating D before a late burst of cosmetic scoring made it seem a game. Orlando had 49 points in the first 44 minutes and trailed by 18 with less than three minutes to go. 如果硬要挑骨头，那他们有六场比赛是在七分差距以内， 但是七六人在这当中输了五场， 而唯一赢的比赛只有对上魔术那场，而且还是因为最後的乱流， 才让魔术追到剩下五分，不然他们让魔术在一开始的44分钟内， 仅仅只得到了49分而已。 (按：所以对湖人的精彩胜利意义非凡) For the season, two stats stand out. First is their defense. The Sixers lead the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin, despite playing a big chunk of the season without both centers. The second is their low-turnover offense: Philly has by far the lowest turnover rating in the NBA at just 10.7 percent of possessions. 这个球季的各项数字当中，七六人在两个领域当中表现得极为显眼。 第一个当然是他们的防守效率， 他们在defensive rating取得巨大的领先， 并且可怕的是，这还是在缺乏两个大中锋好几场的情况下完成的。 第二个是他相当夸张的低失误， 一样是具大的领先，七六人目前在失误率上仅仅只有10.7%(现在已经10.4%了)。 Those two items are intertwined if you look more closely. The Sixers are defined by one characteristic: They never screw up. Philly doesn't turn the ball over on offense, and the Sixers have shot surprisingly well from the perimeter (fifth in the league at 38.5 percent on 3s, up from 15th a year ago with the same players). That's provided them with a decent offense overall, despite the amazing fact they're last in two of Dean Oliver's "four factors." Unbelievably, the Sixers are 30th in both offensive rebound rate and in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. 这两个独立事件乍看之下是丝毫没有联系的， 但是实际是有着千丝万缕的关系。 七六人的球赛有着非常重要的特质：他们从不陷入混乱。 他们在进攻端不轻易犯错，把球权轻易的交给对手， 而且七六人今年在三分线上有着非常大的进步。 (38.5%的命中率，联盟第五，去年是第十五名，且球员名单几乎没变) 这让他们在进攻上面的效率有显着的提昇， 并且使他们能克服4-factor当中靠北低的进攻篮板率以及罚球率(FTA/FGA) 所造成的伤害。 Defensively, it's a similar story. The Sixers don't foul (fourth in opponent free throw rate), don't give up second shots (ninth in defensive rebound rate) and don't surrender 3s (fourth in 3-point defense). Commentators still talk about their ball-hawking defense, but Philly is right at the league average in forcing turnovers; it's been so wildly successful largely by forcing opponents to shoot long 2s. 在防守端也是相似的状况。 七六人不轻易让人上罚球线(在对手罚球率是联盟第四低)， 不轻易给对手有第二次进攻的机会(在防守篮板率排行第九)， 并且不让人有轻易远射的机会(对手三分命中率第四低)。 评论家们总是喜欢谈论七六人制造的抄截， 但是实际上，七六人在制造对手失误的项目中不过就是联盟平均。 这样的防守效率的关键在：让对手射比较没用又没效率的长距离两分 (也就是不放弃三分线、并且尝试让持球者远离篮框) And for this, we should applaud Doug Collins and his team, because they're clearly playing at or near their ceiling. Philly doesn't bowl you over with great individual talents, but it has a lot of good players who play as a team and never beat themselves. All indications are that they will be a top-four seed in the East and win at least a round in the playoffs; while I doubt the Heat fear them after beating them twice by 20, they might be able to give the Bulls quite a tussle. 有监於此，我们必须为 Doug Collins 跟他底下生猛有力的团队鼓掌。 因为他们的确已经达到他们目前所能达到最好的成果。 他们没有非常出色的单兵作战能力， 但是他们有一卡车的优秀球员，并且紧密的结合在一起， 并且不被自己所击败(包括控制失误与球员的自律能力)。 众多的象徵显示着他们会是今年东区前四种子， 并且绝对能够赢得至少一个系列赛的胜利， 也许对上热火，依据季後赛与过去两场的结果， 可以初步认定有着基本的障碍需要克服外， 相信他们对上公牛绝对会有场好戏可以看。 And yet there's an irony behind all this, which is that this season makes Philadelphia's future much harder to divine. 但是讽刺的是，这样的成功似乎带给七六人的未来更多的不确定性。 The sneaking suspicion around the league is that the Sixers are the primary beneficiary of the league's lockout, and the low-error path to success only reinforces that belief. Bringing back the same players and the same system into a league with virtually no training camp, Philly was halfway down the track while everybody else was still back in the starting blocks. If that's the case, the league is going to catch up to the Sixers as the season goes on, and their advantage may be considerably smaller by May. 众多在暗处的声音认为七六人目前只是受惠於封馆所产生的缩水球季， 他们认为以不犯错为基础而成就的成果只是因为大家都还没准备好。 他们将大部分的主力球员都带回来，并且没有更换教练与战术系统， 这在极短的训练营当中是极为吃香的。 因此的确会出现另外一个声音： 「到了五月是不是七六人就後继无力了？」 (因为到了五月，他们这样的优势就会变小) On the other hand, Philly appears to have built quite a solid foundation of good young talent. Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young, Spencer Hawes, Jodie Meeks, Lou Williams and Evan Turner all are 25 or younger; Andre Iguodala, who turned 28 last week, isn't exactly a fossil, either. They may be overachieving, in other words, but they're also still improving. 但是另外一个方面来说， 他们的球队核心是建立在一大堆的潜力新秀身上， Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams, Evan Turner 等人不是才25就是比25更年轻。 球队的主将，Andre Iguodala 上个礼拜也不过才刚满28， 他也不是个化石级的主将。 他们虽然做的比他们所被预期的好，但是更重要的是， 这些球员显然持续不断的成长当中。 That seven-man core appears to have been expanded by two over the summer with rookies Nikola Vucevic and Lavoy "Mr. 500" Allen, who look like two of the better selections in this year's draft. Vucevic has opened eyes with his variety of offensive skills, flashing both a low-post and long-range shooting game while shooting 54.9 percent; the 7-footer also has a strong rebound rate and ranks third among rookies in PER. 在原先年轻的七人核心(Hawes AI9 Jodie Jrue Lou Young Evan)之中还能够升级， 当然是因为今年成功的两个选秀：Nikola Vucevic与Lavoy "Mr. 500" Allen， 以马後炮的眼光来看，七六人显然是这次选秀的大赢家。 Vucevic以他低位进攻与投射能力等进攻技巧令人眼睛为之一亮， 并且有着 54.9% 的命中率。 这位七尺长人还有着强大的篮板率以及新人当中第三高的PER值。 Allen, meanwhile, has impressed with his strength and midrange game after landing 500th out of 500 in our offseason poll ranking the league's players. Clearly, we had him a few spots too low. Atlanta tried posting Josh Smith on Allen early in the game Saturday and got absolutely nowhere; he's proved extremely difficult to move on the block and capable of taking minutes at the center position. Offensively, meanwhile, he's shooting 58.0 percent after an unremarkable four-year career at Temple. Lavoy Allen，他强悍的对抗能力以及中距离， 令我们这些把他列为联盟最遭(第五百名)球员的专家们跌破眼镜。 显然我们在某些部份过度低估他。 星期六的时候，老鹰显然刻意让Josh Smith有机会尝试在低位单打他， 但是什麽事情都没有发生(XD)。 他在禁区当中面对艰难的挑战，并且还要吃下五号位置的时间， 但是他胜任愉快。 在进攻上，他目前有着58%的高命中率，对於一个在天普四年当中， 除了苦工以外不引人注目的球员来说非常显眼。 (Unfortunately for the Sixers, however, somebody was asleep at the wheel when they did Allen's contract. The Sixers gave a straight one-year deal with no team option, allowing him to become a restricted free agent next summer. This is virtually unprecedented for a late-second-round draft pick; nearly all have contracts with multiple team options for three or even four years, allowing the team to keep the player at an extremely low price if he turns out to be any good. Houston's Chandler Parsons, for example, was taken 12 spots ahead of Allen and has team options for the next three seasons. Thus, while Allen looks like a keeper, he may not be as cheap a keeper as he could have been.) 注: 对七六人而言不幸的是，在签约的时候有人漏掉了一些什麽， 七六人并没有在他的合约上加上Team Option， 让他在明年夏天直接成为RFA (也就是没有使用一代Arenas条款) 这在第二轮末端的球员当中显然是史无前例的。 在这四年当中，Arenas条款保护了母队在二轮球员打出来的时候， 可以选择优先低价留下他第二年(或与他续约) 举例来说，火箭的 Chandler Parsons， 他在Allen前面，而他未来有着三年的球队选项。 因此如果Allen看起来是真货，那他就没办法相是别的球员一样这麽便宜 willyt评: RFA还不简单，就跟阿，Joshua Harris哪有在怕得。 That's nine good players 25 or under, plus Iguodala. And that's where we get to the real story of this season's success: the tantalizing possibility that it may allow even more success a year from now. 这里有九个优秀的轮替球员小於二十五岁， 加上28岁Iguodala。 那这样我们就可以理解真正让七六人本季成功的关键： 这些令人流口水的天份与未来发展可能， 将可能让七六人在未来的几年内持续成功。 Philadelphia has not generally been considered a hot market for free agents. If the Sixers win 45 games and a playoff round and can make Chicago or Miami break a sweat in Round 2, that picture may change dramatically. There isn't the lure of beaches and nightlife, but the lure of winning is pretty powerful, too. Philly will have that to lure veterans with its midlevel exception, at worst. 七六人目前并不具备吸引自由球员的条件。 但是如果七六人本季可以赢得超过 45 场的胜利， 并且让公牛或热火在第二轮付出他们应得的代价， 那这情形就会有显着的改善。 费城的确没有吸引人的海滩或者夜景， 但是战绩与胜利同样的吸引人。 七六人至少可以在未来的几年，吸引到老将以MLE加盟。 Or perhaps they could aim higher. The Sixers may lose Lou Williams to free agency (he can opt out and almost certainly will), and Hawes, Meeks and Allen will be free agents, too. So there's plenty of work to be done. But the Sixers also are looking at $15 million in cap pace if Williams walks and they use their amnesty clause on Elton Brand, even after locking up Hawes, Meeks and Allen. 甚至事情可能发展的更有趣。 七六人有可能在自由球员的争霸战失去Louis Williams (他最後一年有option，而他看起来没有skip的可能性) 或 Hawes, Meeks 甚至 Allen。 所以对七六人的未来而言，制服组显然还有很多课题需要克服。 但如果Lou跳脱，而七六人对Brand启用特赦， 那即便Hawes、Meeks、Allen都有留下来，七六人仍然可以获得15M的薪资空间。 No, Dwight Howard isn't coming. But this team doesn't need Dwight Howard. Eric Gordon, on the other hand -- they could really use somebody exactly like him. The Sixers lack both a reliable long-range shooter and go-to offensive option, and he'd fill both those slots rather nicely. 不，别想太多了，Dwight Howard不可能来的， 但是七六人并不需要这号人物。 七六人需要的是像是 Eric Gordon 这样的球员， 有着中长距离的投射威胁，并且是个go-to guy的绝佳选择， 只要能够两个愿望一次满足，何乐而不为？ All this is getting ahead of ourselves, of course. The point is the Sixers can open a number of doors that previously seemed shut by continuing their recent run of success, whether via free agency or trade, because they've built a core of players good enough that other players want to join it. 这些当然只是我们的幻想。 但是重点是七六人在未来有着足够多的选择来持续他们目前的成功， 即便是透过自由球员市场或交易， 但重点是这主菜要吸引人，也就是费城目前年轻有活力的核心。 The key to all of that, however, is sustaining said success in the wake of a more difficult schedule, and against better-prepared opponents. It remains unclear how well the screw-up-less-than-they-do approach will play as more teams shake out the cobwebs and lockoutball reverts to something more closely approaching real NBA basketball. 但是，我们无法预知，以低失误低错误为主的球风， 面对逐渐上升的联盟强度，是否还能够持续维持， 因此目前对於他们真正的实力还是有值得质疑的部份， 必须由更多的球队，以及更强的竞技水准来测试才能得知结果。 What is clear is that Philly is in much better shape than it appeared at the start of the season. They've played like legit contenders through the first third of the season; while we can retain a healthy suspicion of whether they're really this good given the circumstances, it's abundantly clear that this team's future is dramatically brighter than its past. 但是确定的是， 目前的七六人甚至比季前大家所预期的还要来得更好。 他们在球季进行三分之一的当下，打得像是一个强力的冠军竞争者。 虽然在种种考量下，还是应该保留一点合理的怀疑空间， 但是目前的成果充分的显示，比起黯淡的前几个球季而言， 这个球季代表他们的未来将会无比闪耀。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.129.112.48 ※ 编辑: willyt 来自: 220.129.112.48 (02/08 14:21)