外电来源 http://bit.ly/H1v8GJ Sport Ilustrated When the Sixers bolted out of the gate sporting both a top-five offense and a top-five defense, my reaction was, essentially, “let’s see if this team can score efficiently over the long haul.” 当七六人开季破闸而出，攻守两端数据盘据联盟前五时，我的反应是： "让我们看看长期下来，这支球队是否能够有效率地得分？" Almost 40 games later, we have our answer: They can’t. The Sixers still have the league’s best defense by a pretty big margin, but they have fallen all the way to 17th in points per possession, and it’s clear they just don’t have enough scoring – in crunch time and otherwise — to compete with the best teams in the Eastern Conference. And that’s too bad, because the Sixers ’ offense is a really interesting study in going to stylistic extremes as a way of maximizing talent and minimizing the lack of a consistent individual scoring threat capable of creating efficient offense. 四十场球赛下来，我们得到的答案是：不能。七六人仍旧是联盟顶级的防守劲旅，但是 进攻端已经跌落到联盟平均以下的第十七名。很明显他们的得分不足--尤其是在关键 时刻--以抵抗东区其他顶级球队。这样的结果令人失望，因为七六人的进攻是有相当 研究价值的极端例子。他们将团队的天赋极大化，来遮掩他们最大的弱点--缺乏稳定 、有效率的球星带来的进攻威胁。 The good extreme: Philadelphia rarely turns the ball over. The Sixers have coughed the ball up on 10.7 percent of their possessions so far this season, putting them on pace for the lowest turnover rate in the history of the league. They play a low-risk brand of ball built upon the idea that if all five guys move, pass and cut enough times over 15 seconds or so, a good look will emerge somewhere on the court. It’s a style that removes all the higher-risk parts of an NBA offense that most often lead to turnovers — pick-and-rolls in which the point guard gets into the teeth of a defense and tries a tricky interior pass, isolation drives into traffic and post-up plays that draw double-teams. 好的极端是，七六人极少失误。本季只有 10.7% 的进攻以失误作结，七六人将成为 联盟史上失误最低的球队。低风险的进攻哲学是建立在场上五人的跑动配合球的移动、 切、传，十五秒左右好的进攻机会将会在场上浮现。选择不使用 NBA 进攻套数里风险 较高的几种战术--不让挡切中的控球後卫陷入防守阵式，勉强将球往进禁区送；或是 放单边强攻，亦或低位单打以吸引包夹。 It also produces a bad extreme: The Sixers do not get to the foul line enough to survive. They make one free throw per every 6.5 field-goal attempts, for a free-throw/field-goal attempt ratio of .154, per Basketball-Reference. If that number holds, the Sixers will finish with the lowest free-throw rate any team has posted since 1946-47, when the NBA technically didn’t exist. (It was known as the Basketball Association of America and merged with a second league in 1949 to create the NBA.) Only two teams have finished with a ratio below .180 since the mid-1970s, and both of those teams came in well above where the Sixers stand now. The Sixers have attempted fewer than 10 foul shots in four of their last 21 games — the same number of games in which they ’ve managed to earn 20 or more free throws during that stretch. The average team attempts about 22.8 free throws per game. 当然也有不好的极端： 上不了罚球线让七六人难以生存。每六次半的投篮机会才导致 一次罚球机会，罚球机会和投篮机会的比率是难以想像的一成五四。继续保持下去， 七六人又将创造联盟另一项纪绿，罚球机会最少的球队。上次有球队低於一成八是 七零年代的往事，而且那些球队在相对的时间点都比七六人目前的数据高上不少。过去 二十一场比赛中七六人有四场全队罚球不到四次，只有四场罚球超过二十次。联盟平均 是 22. 8 次。 The net result is a failing offense. Over their last 20 games, the Sixers have averaged 98.9 points per 100 possessions, the rough equivalent of what Boston’s 25th-ranked offense has produced this season, per NBA.com’s stats database. 一来一往的结果是失灵的进攻。过去二十场比赛，每一百次的持球机会七六人的得分是 98.9分，大约是塞尔蒂克本季的进攻效率。 But the Sixers’ free-throw phobia is part of a larger trend in this weird lockout-shortened season: No one is getting to the line much. The league’s collective free-throw/field-goal attempt ratio is just .210, the lowest league-wide ratio since 1973-74, and a mark that would be third-lowest in the entire history of the BAA/NBA if it holds up. The Bulls, Wizards, Warriors, Spurs and Hawks are all on pace to join Philadelphia among the 52 “worst” teams in NBA history at earning free throws, according Basketball-Reference. 但是在这个封馆缩水球季里，七六人乾涸的罚球是联盟的缩影。总体的联盟罚球对投篮 比率是两成一，1973-74球季以来的最低，也将是 BBA 以及 NBA 历史上第三低的。公牛 、巫师、勇士、马刺和老鹰都将加入七六人成为历史上五十二支罚球"最烂"的球队。 Again, if these numbers stay around where they are now, this season will produce six of the 52 teams that have made free throws least often in the 60-plus year of the league (and its predecessor leagues). The trend works on the flip side, too; a half-dozen teams are on pace to end up as among the least foul-prone defensive clubs in league history. That list also includes the Bulls, a slightly terrifying development; the idea that a team can defend as fiercely as Chicago without fouling should scare everyone. 五十二支球队里占六支似乎是相当高的比率，然而极端化的趋势也将显现在防守端。 六支球队将成为联盟史上最少犯规的球队。赫然出现在这名单上的公牛应该让联盟 其他球队感到胆寒，因为他们凶狠的防守不需要犯规作为武器。 A small drop in free throw percentage–from 76.3 percent last season to 75.1 percent this season–might explain a tiny bit of the drop in free throw rate, but the league’s free throw percentage has been in the 75s as recently as the 2007-08 and 2009-10 seasons. The average team is attempting about 1.5 fewer free throws per game this season, though the real difference is a hair larger, since the pace of play has declined slightly from last season. 罚球命中率在本季稍稍下降，从上季的 76.3% 掉到本季的 75.1%，或许解释了一部分的 异象。然而从 07-08 和 09-10 球季罚球命中率就在 75% 左右。球队平均本季少了 1.5 次的罚球出手，然而真正的情况应该是罚球比率稍稍上昇，因为本季普遍放慢的进攻步调 。 The league’s free-throw rate has been low all season. I asked Stu Jackson, the NBA’s vice president, about the issue two months ago, when the free throw/field-goal attempt ratio was up at .215. He correctly noted that free-throw rate had been dropping for several seasons before this one, but he admitted the league was concerned about the sharper-than-usual drop-off that happened at the start of this season. He told me the league’s concern would grow if the free throw rate continued to drop as the season went on. That has happened. Jackson wasn’t immediately available for comment this morning. 联盟罚球出手的比率整季都相当低。两个月前请教了 NBA 副总裁 Stu Jackson，关於 当时 .215 的罚球出手比率。他提到数个球季以来这个比率一直在下降，但是联盟当局 的确对於本季开季以来异常的下跌感到忧心。当时他表示联盟将会持续观察。然而今早 未能取得他本人现在的评语。 In that January interview, Jackson also suggested teams were going to zone defenses more often than usual, possibly as a means of providing a bit of in-game relief for tired players, and that zones naturally produced fewer fouls. 一月时 Jackson 也同时指出球队大量使用区域防守来舒缓球员体力的消耗，也间接 使得犯规的次数下降。 One encouraging aside in all this: The league’s offense has rebounded after a horrid start. A quarter of the way through the season, the average team was scoring about five fewer points per 100 possessions compared with last season. The gap is down to about three points per 100 possessions now, meaning the league in the interim has produced at a rate at least close to what it did last season. League-wide three-point percentage has jumped by almost a full percentage point over the last 30 or so games. 在这些低迷的指标中，令人感到正面的是联盟的进攻在开季的惨澹後已经回到过去的 水平。在球季四分之一的时间点，一支联盟平均的球队，在每一百个持球进攻的机会 ，大约比前一季少得五分。这个差距目前缩小到三分左右，也就是说过去这段时间至 少已经有上一季的水准。联盟的三分球命中率在过去三十场左右的比赛也上升了一个 百分点。 In any case, some of the other teams who have failed to generate free throws this season can probably survive long-term. The Bulls have the best free-throw rate among all those teams mentioned above, and they’ll generate more when Derrick Rose is healthy. San Antonio is tied with Chicago in the points-per-possession rankings, behind only the league-leading Thunder, meaning both teams are thriving despite the free-throw drought. And the Spurs, too, should get there a more as Manu Ginobili settles in and starts driving to the rim like a mad man. 对於其他队来说，缺乏过去水平的罚球或许还可以撑得下去。公牛是是前述球队里最 好的，而在 Rose 健康的时候他们将有更多罚球出手机会。马刺在得分/持球机会排名 中和公牛打平，只落後给联盟最佳的雷霆，表示这两支球队都在缺乏罚球的情况下仍旧 在进攻端表现出色。同样地，在 Manu 上场时马刺也能够得到更多的罚球机会。 But the Sixers? They don’t have a Rose, Ginobili, Tony Parker, Tim Duncan or even a Carlos Boozer. Their defense alone will make them a tough out in May and June, and in a seven-game series, the math says they’ll have at least one or two games in which their offense produces at an above-average level. But they aren’t guaranteed to win those games, and the general scoring issues suggest they can’t compete with Miami or Chicago over seven games. They’re clearly capable of getting out of the first round, but even that will be a fight. 但是七六人呢？他们没有 Rose 也没有 Ginobili，Tony Parker，Tim Duncan 或是 Boooooozer。防守使他们成为短系列赛的威胁，数据告诉我们他们将至少有一到两场 能够展显水准以上的进攻。但是这并不保证他们能够赢得那些比赛，反倒是进攻的问题 成为七六人能否与热火或公牛竞争七场系列赛的一大问号。他们显然有突破季後赛 第一轮的能力，但即便是第一轮都可能打得辛苦。 And after such a promising start for Philadelphia, that prognosis counts as a disappointment. 令人惊艳的开季让球迷对七六人充满期待，然而这些隐忧指向令人失望的未来。 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 50.46.102.35 ※ 编辑: jimcal 来自: 50.46.102.35 (03/29 12:47)