Philadelphia 76ers: 2012-13 roster 2012-13霍家拳门阵容分析与预测：费城七六人队 By John Hollinger | ESPN.com Originally Published: September 20, 2012 http://tinyurl.com/9t6mjnp 按: 此文过长，我分两次来。 ★ PROJECTED STARTERS / 预测先发阵容 ￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣ JRUE HOLIDAY, PG Scouting report + Big, quick point guard with good quickness and hands. Improved defender. 具有身材与速度优势於一身，且还有着在一号位置不常见的长臂。有着 极高的防守天份，但是此领域潜力尚未兑现。 + Struggling to convert talent into production offensively. Doesn't draw fouls. 在将天份转换成进攻输出的过程上有些颠簸，且上罚球线的次数不够多。 + Not a pure point guard. Needs to shoot more 3s. Good midrange shooter. 他不只可以控，还能进攻。不过在成为顶尖控球後卫的路上，他目前已 经是个很不错的中距离机器，但是三分丢得还不够多。 Analysis Is the system holding him back, or is Holiday doing this on his own? His third season was a major disappointment, as he showed no progress from his first two, and the question is whether that's because his role was so limited in this system, or because he's hitting the limits of his potential. 有个严肃的话题是：究竟去年的Jrue是被系统给限制，还是他自己的进 步不够大呢？他三年级球季的成长幅度让很多人感到失望，但是问题基 本上就在於这个问题的结果：於究竟是系统限制了他，还是他的成长已 经到了瓶颈？ Holiday is only 21 and entered last season as a major breakout candidate, but most of his numbers went south. He was 50th among point guards in pure point rating, 44th in true shooting percentage, and only in the middle of the pack in usage rate, and did nothing dramatically better than league-average offensively. 话虽如此，Jrue去年也不过21，而即将迈入他关键的新秀保证约第四年， 仍然是最佳进步奖的强力挑战者；但是问题在於他有些象徵(尤其是数 字上)出现了负面的信号，他在联盟所有的控球後卫当中，纯控指数(按: 马的又是这老头自己创造的奇怪数字)排联盟第50，而真实命中率(TS%) 则是所有控球中的第44，他的进攻参与比例也只是在排行榜的中游回荡， 总而言之，他的进攻效率与产出没有超过联盟平均太多。 Holiday shot the ball adequately from 3 (38.0 percent) but once again took an exceptionally small portion of his shots from behind the arc. He shot a very solid 40.9 percent from outside 10 feet, and if he can convert some of those 2s to 3s he'll have a lot more value. Jrue在三分线外有着很不错的准星，但还是要再度强调：他丢得太少了。 他在十尺外的命中率有着跟三分线外差不多的准星(40.9%)，而只要他 有办法将这些中距离其中一部分拉到三分线外来丢，将能够大大的提高 他身为一个控球後卫的价值。 Meanwhile, he also has to draw fouls and get to the basket -- two areas he really struggled last season. Holiday was 56th out of 70 point guards in free throw rate, which is unacceptable for a player with his size and quickness. Meanwhile, he only shot 53.6 percent at the rim. 同时，他对於主动追求身体对抗上罚球线的意识与心态不够积极。他去 年在全联盟总计70个控球後卫中，罚球率(FTA/FGA)只有排在第56，以 他顶尖的身材优势与速度来看，这个结果实在难以令人接受。另外他切 入後在油漆区取分的命中率只有53.6%，实在不够高。这两个领域是他 去年绩效差强人意两大主因。 So if he's not a great finisher, and he's not a great passer, and he's not a great shooter, then … well, what is he? 如果他不是一个好的终结者，也不是个好的传球者，还不是个顶尖的射 手，那身为一个控球，他的价值就非常的有限了。 One thing he is, at least, is a solid defender. Holiday had an easier time navigating pick-and-roll defense last season, and otherwise was very good. He's big for the position, quick, likes to pressure the ball, and has good hands. Synergy rated him as one of the league's best point guards, and other data supported the idea that he was a net positive. 不过至少他是个还不错的防守者。除了对抗档拆通过掩体的速度与火侯 还必须加油之外，他各方面的防守都很不错。在控球後卫的位置上他简 直就是个有惊人速度与灵活性的巨人，并且对持球者的防守做得非常到 位，并且拥有一双犯贱的手，能够造成对方极大的困扰。球探级的付费 数据网站Synergy的分析中将他列为对位效率联盟最佳的控球後卫之一， 主要原因就是他在防守端的产出让他在攻守效率差上表现得很不错。 * PPR, Pure Point Percentage: 纯控球率，John Hollinger把他当作是一种Ball-Handling的指标，公式 如下： PPR: Pure Point Rating = 100 * (Lg Poss per 48 min / Tm Poss per 48 min) * (((AST * 2/3) - TOV) / MP). 个人意见是这东西能相信，总统府大门就朝西边了。 ￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣ JASON RICHARDSON, SG Scouting report + High-jumping wing with great elevation on jumper. Weak off-dribble game. 一个以跳投为主的侧翼，但同时也有很不错的体能，尤其是弹跳能力。 但是相较於他被喂球时的效率，他非常不擅长倚靠运球为自己创造进攻 机会。 + Two-footed leaper who needs to stop and gather near basket. Good rebounder. 双脚的弹跳高度让他可以在客串补防以及篮板上有所发挥，当然也包括 偶一为之的show time。 + Subpar defensive player. Lacks lateral quickness. Would benefit from move to 3. 在防守上低於联盟平均、横向移动不佳。但是移往三号可能让他的缺陷 被掩盖。 Analysis Richardson's steady descent continued unabated, shooting just 36.8 percent on 3s and, even worse, losing his finishing skills. Richardson made only 44.2 percent inside the arc and had one of the lowest free throw rates in the league; included in that was an abysmal 28.6 percent mark on long 2s. Other than 3s, the two hallmarks of his game had been post-ups and easy transition baskets at the rim, but he declined dramatically on both last season. J-Rich的进攻状态有逐渐下降的趋势，就目前为止还无法断定这样的进 程是否会持续，像是他去年在三分线上剩下36.8%的命中率，更糟糕的 是他在三分线内的命中率不过就44.2%。附带一提，他的罚球率是可以 被列入最糟糕的集团之中的，而且他的长距离两分球命中率已经下修到 28.6%。曾经是他专利商标中保证的两大武器：低位单打与快攻箭头， 目前也都有生锈的趋势。 Nothing else improved to offset it. Richardson had a career-low rebound rate and shot a career-low from the free throw line, although defensively he did a solid job by his recent standards. While he's a good leaper, Richardson does not move well laterally and generally struggles at this end. However, he played more at the 3 than in other seasons and this appeared to help him. He's pretty big for a 2 and can jump, so defending bigger players offsets some of his quickness deficit. 而且他在其他领域当中没有明显的进步以抵销这些领域当中的衰弱与下 滑。他去年的篮板率以及罚球命中率也都是生涯最低，不过至少他的防 守虽然没有很突出，但是没有偏离他的生涯水准；不过跟他的弹跳能力 比起来，他的横向移动与防守效果实在比较糟糕。但至少，球队能够让 他打上三号以减少他的衰退与不足造成的伤害。他对一般的二号球员而 言算是比较巨大的，所以换言之他能够守比较大只的球员，而且同时具 有强悍的速度与成熟的运球的小前锋也是比较稀有的。 Also, Richardson remains an extreme low-mistake offensive player, sporting the fifth-lowest turnover ratio among shooting guards. Most of his shots are catch-and-shoot or catch-and-dunk; in fact he hardly ever dribbles. Given that formula, he can still be an impactful player when the shots are falling. 而除此之外，J-Rich在进攻端也鲜少犯错，在SG的群落当中，他的失误 率(to%)也是比较低的，虽然这拜他的进攻模式着重Catch 'n Shoot之 赐，作为一个大量倚靠cutting的球员，他的无球运作非常好(虽然他的 运球弱点也是让他被迫成为一个依赖无球跑动球员的主要原因)，他仍 然可以在他表现良好且手感发烫的时候帮助球队。 ￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣ EVAN TURNER, SF Scouting report + Big wing who handles ball well. Average athlete but awesome rebounder for size. 以他在侧翼当中属於哥利亚的体型优势中，还能兼顾优秀的持球能力实 属难得。而且虽然他的体能并没有非常出众，但是他的篮板能力比之他 的身材条件来说非常出色。 + Willing defender with good size, but average feet and hands. Doesn't make 3s. 他的身材条件让他成为一个很不错的防守者，不过缺点就是手短了点。 他的三分至今仍然不可靠。 + Creates midrange shots but rarely gets to rim. Good midrange shooter. 大量依赖中距离，但是却很少挑战篮框。不过庆幸的是他的中距离算是 值得信赖。 Analysis Turner took over a starting job last season and played heavy minutes for a team that was a game from the conference finals. As a result, a lot of people are under the mistaken impression that he's good. Offensively, however, he remains a huge negative capable of creating lots of low-percentage shots but few easy ones. 小坏蛋在去年终於拿到他的先发位置，且在拿到先发後他的上场时间有 相当明显的增加，而且确实帮助球队在季後赛走了十三场比赛，就差这 麽一步就能进入东冠。不过这样的数字让很多人认为他非常好，但是实 际上他的进攻仍然有待努力，尤其在进攻的选择与命中率的提高上必须 好好的下功夫。 Look at Turner's shot chart and he doesn't seem bad -- he shot 39.4 percent from beyond 10 feet and 66.7 percent at the rim. That's good, right? Indeed, his two-point shooting percentage was above the league average for shooting guards. 不过至少在分布图上，一切都还好：摊开来看，他在10尺以外的命中率 有39.4%，而他在篮框附近则有高达66.7%的命中率。看起来不错对吧？ 至少他的外围投射是有达到SG的联盟平均的。 But he was dead last in secondary percentage. Turner has one of the lowest free throw rates at his position and never makes 3s, an impossibly inefficient combination that put him fifth from the bottom in true shooting percentage. He's a good passer -- one who tends to make high-value assists -- but not a great one, and his forays inside the 3-point line have a high turnover cost. 不过他的二次进攻(倚靠进攻篮板创造的出手机会)相当的糟糕。Turner 是联盟的得分後卫中罚球率最低的那群，而且更糟糕的是直到目前为止 他还不能丢三分，因此这些低效率的组合让他成为得分後卫中命中率倒 数第五的那个人。他是个很不错很不错的传球者，有能力传出高品质的 助攻，但是他不是最好的，而且因为他的进攻大量集中在三分线内，以 至於让他在失误上付出代价。 So it all looks pretty good while it's happening, but he's actually quietly killing the offense. 所以虽然看起来还不错，但是不争的事实是：在过去两年中只要他上场， 就会伤害球队的进攻。 The one thing Turner does well is defensive rebound, and I mean he does it phenomenally well. Turner's 22.2 defensive rebound rate not only led all shooting guards, it was quite likely the best of all-time by a guard. Position definitions can be hazy, but a basketball-reference.com search produced nobody in the same zip code -- Jason Kidd's 20.8 in 2006-07 was the best I could do. Turner's mark would have ranked in the top quarter of power forwards and bested a majority of the league's centers; Pau Gasol, Emeka Okafor, Roy Hibbert and Paul Millsap all had worse defensive rebound rates than Turner. 不过有些事情Turner做得很不错，那就是他的防守篮板的能力相当凶悍， 而且请注意，不是普通凶悍，是非常凶悍。他有着难以置信的22.2%的 防守篮板率(这当然领先了所有的得分後卫)，而且在後卫的世界中，这 很有可能是历史级的纪录。虽然用位置来看可能有高估的嫌疑，不过当 我在basketball-reference.com仔细的翻找，能够找到最接近的单季後 卫篮板率是Jason Kidd在06-07创造的20.8%。这样的数字甚至可以在PF 的世界当中占排头的四分之一。甚至有一些你认为的顶尖中锋们，像是 Pau Gasol/Okafor/Hibbert/Millsap的防守篮板率都比不上Turner。 ￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣ SPENCER HAWES, PF Scouting report + Skilled 7-footer who likes high post. Good passer and can shoot with range. 一个在高位有着天赋与顶尖技巧的七尺长人，具有很不错的传球能力与 视野，同时能够在远距离进行投射。 + Solid rebounder. Has decent post game but rarely displays it. Shies from contact. 保护篮板做得非常不错，有还不错的低位技巧但是他很少使用，因为他 不擅长面对碰撞且极端刻意避免面对。 + Has size to be good defender but needs more toughness and strength. 他有着身为好的防守球员所应该具备的身材条件，但是必须更硬、更强 大才能够体现。 Analysis Nobody's quite sure what to make of Hawes' season, which consisted of a glorious breakout in the opening weeks followed by a steady trail-off toward the Hawes everybody remembered. The cautiously optimistic take is that he's become a much better high-post operator, particularly as a passer, and that combined with his midrange game makes him something of a poor man's Brad Miller but with better defense. 没有任何一个人可以精准的评价上个球季的耗子哥。他去年一开始看起 来是处在一个全面进化的阶段，但是在受伤之後似乎又变回了原本那个 死耗子。但是值得乐观的是他成为一个非常成功的高位起点，尤其是他 的传球非常到位，加上他的中距离能力，让他成为一个穷人板本的Brad Miller，外加稍微强悍一点的防守。 The negative take is that his shooting marks were a fluke, he still never draws fouls, and if he was so good how come the Sixers practically fell over themselves to get him out of the game in the playoffs? Hawes shot 56.8 percent before the All-Star break, 44.3 percent after, and 46.3 percent in the playoffs. 但是从反面的角度，你可以质疑他的命中率可能只是好运，而他仍然无 法要到犯规，甚至你可以质疑他：如果他真的这麽好，七六人怎麽会差 一点点就进不了季後赛？他在全明星赛前有着靠北的56.8%的命中率， 但是他在全明星赛後只有44.3%，在季後赛只有46.3%。 Given that he's shot in the 46 percent range his entire career except for that brief outburst before the break, we should expect a regression this season. And that's unfortunate because he never draws fouls, so he needs a high field goal percentage or some 3s to offset that shortcoming. Otherwise, he's a middling offensive option at best. 他的生涯也待盖就是46%左右的命中率，所以你有理由相信他的前半季 的命中率也许就是有运气成份与水分，甚至可以期待他下个球季就跌回 生涯水准。而且不幸的是，因为他远离禁区，且不太能够制造犯规，所 以如果他不能加强他的命中率，或者丢更多三分，不然他就只是个平凡 的进攻球员。 However, his development as a playmaker was real and notable. Hawes ranked fourth among centers in assist ratio and second in pure point rating. 不过撇开命中率的话题，他在传球、视野甚至战术运作上的成长是真实 且难以被忽略的。在所有的中锋当中，他的助攻失误比(Ast/to)是第四 高，且在纯控指数上排名第二。 Defensively, Hawes was a bit of a weak link, something that was more apparent because Philly's other bigs were so good. Synergy Stats gave him decent grades, but opposing centers had an 18.3 player efficiency rating against him according to 82games.com, and the Sixers gave up 2.4 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. While his rebounding and shot-blocking numbers were solid, his lack of physicality and middling mobility were a problem. The latter is likely to be more exposed if Philly's plan to start him at the 4 comes to fruition. 在防守上，他看起来真的比较差，不过在费城的其他长人都有着强大防 守端能力与产出的情况下，让他变得比较突出。虽然Synergy给他一个 还过得去的评价，但是82games.com表示只要他守的中锋平均有着18.3 的PER(联盟平均是15)，而且耗子在场时，七六人平均一百波进攻会多 丢2.4分。另外，虽然他有很不错得篮板与补防表现，但是他过於软弱 以及较差的机动性将会是个问题。如果七六人真的打算让他以先发四号 出发，那这些问题有被放大的风险。 ￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣ ANDREW BYNUM, C Scouting report + Huge post weapon who can establish deep position and score from short range. 一个难以抵挡的低位武器，能够要到深位位，并能够在接近篮框的位置 倚靠技巧或技术取分。 + Excellent shot-blocker. Won't rotate to perimeter but protects basket. 绝佳的大扫把。虽然不常支援外围轮转，但是在保护篮框的工作上有着 十分杰出的表现。 + Good post defender. Capable passer but tends to hold ball. Very injury-prone. 低位大钢板。有着不错的传球能力，但是有时会倾向自己打掉。另外有 着健康上的风险。 Analysis Bynum stayed healthy all season and broke out with a career-best season, making the first of what's likely to be several All-Star teams thanks to his dominant low-post game. The key for Bynum is getting shots at the rim; he took nearly five a game and converted a stellar 73.2 percent of them, plus he drew a high rate of fouls and most came in this area. He was mortal when pushed to 3-to-9 feet and forced to rely on short hook shots, converting 42.6 percent. Drew去年整季保持健康且打出了生涯的最佳表现；拜他令人印象深刻的 爆炸性低位表现，还入选了他本来应该多次入选的全明星队。关键在於 Bynum能够持续在靠近篮框的位置轰炸，一场比赛至少要在篮下出手五 次，还能维持73.2%的命中率，再外加能够换到大量的犯规。不过当他 被推到离篮框3~9尺的区域时候，他的效率将会比较差，而且命中率就 只剩下42.6%，还比较常依赖小勾射。 Lakers coach Mike Brown also gave Bynum's numbers a nudge by playing him with the second unit to start the second and fourth quarters; with no Kobe Bryant to monopolize the ball, it ensured lots of touches for Bynum. As a result, his 40-minute scoring rate improved by a whopping five points. 另外Mike Brown让他跟着第二阵容打也一定程度帮助了他把数字往上推， 他通常在第二节与第四节开始时就披甲上阵；当场上没有Kobe长时间持 有球权时就能够有效确保Drew获得足够的进攻机会。他的per40得分就 因此有了显着的成长，大约多了五分左右。 Like his teammate Pau Gasol, Bynum also benefited from an extremely low foul rate that allowed him stay on the court, as his rate of 1.93 whistles per 40 minutes was the least of any frontcourt player. While this sometimes was a negative -- he won't take a foul to prevent a layup, unless his team is down by 30 and J.J. Barea is steaming down the middle of the lane -- it allowed him to play over 35 minutes a game despite iffy stamina. 另外跟他前任好队友Pau Gasol一样，维持极低的犯规频率帮助了Drew 稳定维持他在数字上的绩效，平均每40分钟出场只能只会累积1.93次的 犯规，这在所有前场球员当中毫无疑问是顶尖水准。只要不要落後三十 分，场上也没有J.J. Barea的话，他能够保证自己不对切进来的後场球 员飞蛾扑火，并且能保证自己在场上能够驰骋至少35分钟。 Better yet, he only missed six games, after missing an average of 31 the previous four seasons. The pounding of his huge frame on the knees will be a major story to watch going forward, as knee problems have caused all his absences. 去年更令人惊喜的是：在之旗四年，Drew平均一季要缺席31场比赛；但 他上季只缺席了六场比赛。他膝盖所受过的旧伤将是最大的隐忧，而他 几乎所有的缺席都是肇因於这双膝盖。 Meanwhile, Bynum also contributed in other areas. He's an elite rebounder who ranked tenth among centers, and he protected the rim well, finishing in the top third among centers in blocks. 另外Drew在其他方面也有很不错的表现。他的篮板率在联盟全数的中锋 当中排名前十，另外能有效保护篮框，在火锅的数量上毫无疑问的是五 号位置毫无疑问的前三名。 About the only negative, aside from his occasional fantasies of becoming a 3-point shooter, is that he holds the ball a lot in the post and brings the offense to a screeching halt. Making quicker moves and decisions, especially against double-teams, will only make him more potent on the block. So, too would eliminating the comfort dribble that he constantly feels the need to take. Nonetheless, he's arrived as the game's second-best center, and will be just 25 on opening day. 扣掉那可笑的三分话题，Drew唯一的瑕疵是他常常在低位要球，而他可 能破坏球的流动性。他必须学会更明快的做出抉择，尤其是当必然会出 现的包夹出现时，他必须快速找到能帮助他的队友，才能够协助他往前 更进一步；并且能协助他在尝试要单打时，取得更舒服的下球空间。但 无论如何，他是以联盟第二中锋的头衔降临在兄弟友爱之城，这是毫无 疑问的事实，且今年开季他才刚刚满25岁，还是拥有无限的想像空间。 ￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣ Hollinger如果可以赶快把什麽场合用什麽数据说清楚， 而不是乱创指标，他会变得更值得尊敬。 Nice piece. -- Definitely one of the all-time under-rated sixers. Glad to see him finally getting some league wide recognition the last few years (All-star, All-NBA defense, Team USA). As much as he's been bashed on these boards over the years I'm sure he'll be missed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV0ubjT6eDk 76ers' ACE of Spades in the past Decade, Andre Iguodala #9 forever. --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 111.243.224.108 你是对的XD 我看太快, fixed ※ 编辑: willyt 来自: 111.243.224.108 (09/21 21:38)