U.S. agriculture isn't nearing a trade war tariff crisis, it's in a 'full-blown crisis already,' farmers say 农民们说，美国农业并没有接近贸易战关税危机，它已经处於“全面危机”之中 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/28/trade-war-tariffs-full-blown-crisis-us-farm-exporters-say.html https://tinylink.info/Y9t4 MON, APR 28 2025 7:09 AM EDT Lori Ann LaRocco KEY POINTS The global backlash to the Trump tariffs is punishing U.S. agriculture, especially with a decline in Chinese buying of U.S. farm products, farmers said. A leading agriculture exports group said "massive" financial losses are already racking up at farms, with cancelled orders resulting in layoffs, as China stops buying products from pork to lumber. "No one can replace all the volume that China buys," one farm operator reported. A crane unloads peas imported from Canada at the Laizhou port area of Yantai Port in Yantai, China, Feb. 28, 2025. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images The clock is ticking on trade deals that the U.S. will need to strike with many nations, most notably China, to avoid what President Donald Trump's Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has described as an unsustainable tariff war. But in the U.S. farming sector, the damage has already been done and the economic crisis already begun. U.S. agriculture exporters say the global backlash to Trump's tariffs is punishing them, especially through a decline in Chinese buying of U.S. farm products, leading to canceled export orders and layoffs. Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, or AgTC, a leading export trade group for farmers, told CNBC the number of canceled purchases of U.S. agricultural products should not be described as approaching a crisis. "It is a full-blown crisis already," he said. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday revealed China made its biggest cancellation of pork orders since 2020, halting a shipment of 12,000 tons of pork. AgTC said "massive" financial losses are already being felt by its members as a result of the trade war, based on reports it is receiving from member companies. A wood pulp and paperboard exporter reported to the trade group the immediate cancellation or hold of 6,400 metric tons in a warehouse and a hold of 15 railcars sitting in what is known in the supply chain as "demurrage," when fees are charged for delayed movement of goods. Meanwhile, the exporter said, 9,000 metric tons of the product are on the water to China, expected to arrive May 13 and facing the threat of costly diversion to Chinese bonded warehouses or to other countries, as Chinese buyers may refuse the cargo and abandon it at port. One grass seed exporter told AgTC it received two weeks' notice that eight loads were being canceled by Chinese customers despite vessels already being booked. At a recent stakeholder meeting at the Port of Oakland headquarters regarding tariff impacts, Port of Oakland Executive Director Kristi McKenney warned that a tariff-induced downturn in the port's cargo volume — whether from import slowdowns or retaliatory export losses — ultimately could jeopardize job stability and the region's economic health. McKenney cited retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, as well as manufactured goods; both are essential exports that move through Oakland. Exports include almonds, beef, pork, dairy, and recycled materials, much of which is destined for Asia. China ranks as the port's top import trading partner and third export partner, representing 29% of Oakland's total trade volume. Unlike many U.S. ports that lean heavily on imports, Oakland is unique in maintaining a near 50/50 balance of imports and exports. That leaves Oakland concerned that tariff retaliation would directly impact its top export destinations — Japan, Taiwan, China and South Korea — and could significantly erode California's market share for perishable and high-value commodities. The Port of Oakland is the No. 1 refrigerated export gateway in the U.S., and nearly all containerized cargo moving through Northern California goes through the Port of Oakland. "So many local, union jobs depend on the Port's robust shipping operations including dockworkers, truck operators, and warehouse workers," said Rep. Lateefah Simon, D-Calif. "I support smart trade policies that uplift workers and lower costs for Oakland's working families — not an illogical and retaliatory trade war." Agricultural exporters warned that there are no other markets that can quickly replace China's demand and absorb the volume, and that is already affecting prices. "We have diverted employees and production to other (less profitable) production and dramatically slowed down purchasing from independent venders (loggers, truckers, sawmills)," one lumber exporter reported to AgTC. Some products have already declined 20% in market value, the exporter reported, which it said will influence inventory planning and future investments. "The U.S. market was stable and improving, but now awash with inventory of former China products," the lumber exporter said. An exporter of forage such as hay and straw that is a big business for U.S. farms supplying overseas livestock operations reported 68 blanked sailings after Trump announced new tariffs April 2. It said this limits its ability to export forage goods, as vessel space for exports is restricted on freight ships still calling on U.S. ports. "The worry is the vessel space that remains is going to be the most expensive/most 'premium' services that our product cannot absorb without selling at a loss. Being a high volume, low value item, we cannot afford drastic increases in ocean freight," the forage exporter reported to AgTC. There has been a sharp decline in China-to-U.S. vessel traffic, down 22.15% week over week and 44% year over year through April 14, according to the Vizion Global Ocean Bookings Tracker. "What we've seen in the last two weeks is a continued correction in booking demand for U.S. imports, especially U.S. imports from China," said Ben Tracy, Vizion's vice president of strategic business development. "We are now seeing this translate to a drop in departures as well." A hay exporter in central Washington that sends a large amount of its crop output to Hong Kong and mainland China was told to reroute most of the exports shipped in the past two weeks to Japan, Dubai, Taiwan, and a few Chinese ports. Those changes came at a cost to the company, which told the AgTC that "it's not sustainable, no one can replace all the volume that China buys." The hay exporter said it immediately put a stop on all orders in process, and has begun layoffs. "We had to adjust our employee count down by 12 persons. This accounts for one-fourth of our total employees," it wrote. The company said it has been communicating to customers and employees its hope that "hasty and reckless decision-making at the top of our country will reverse, easing deep troubles that we are facing at this time." In addition to the tariff backlash, agriculture is facing another looming financial challenge with the recently announced SHIPS Act measures approved by the US Trade Representative, with Chinese-made vessels calling at U.S. ports to be charged port fees of more than $1.5 million starting in the fall. Bulk agriculture was carved out of the port fees imposed under the USTR rule, but agriculture shipped in containers is not exempt from the fees. Friedmann said an exemption is essential because the most valuable U.S. agriculture exports are shipped in containers, not bulk. Containerized exports include refrigerated beef, pork, poultry, fruit, vegetables, dairy, and processed foods such as french fries. Cotton, nuts, dried dairy, lumber, paper, soybeans for human consumption, and forage, such as hay and alfalfa, are also shipped in containers. "Efforts to exempt all agriculture exports, including containerized agriculture, are continuing," Friedmann said. Based on U.S. trade data, the share of U.S. agriculture moved in containers is approximately 25% by volume and nearly 55% by value. The USTR did not respond to a CNBC request for comment on fee exemptions for containerized agriculture. "So much of our future lies in the hands of so few," a hay exporter wrote to AgTC. "We plead for those few to take a very long careful look at what can be done to keep shipments flowing while they work out the trade imbalances and perceived differences." 农民们说，美国农业并没有接近贸易战关税危机，它已经处於“全面危机”之中 关键点 农民们表示，全球对特朗普关税的强烈反对正在惩罚美国农业，尤其是随着中国对美国农产品的购买量下降。 一家领先的农业出口集团表示，随着中国停止购买从猪肉到木材的产品，农场已经出现了“巨大”的财务损失，订单取消导致裁员。 一比特农场经营者报告称：“没有人能取代中国购买的所有数量。”。 2025年2月28日，中国烟台港莱州港区，一台起重机正在卸载从加拿大进口的豌豆。 Nurphoto| Nurphoto|盖蒂图片社 美国需要与许多国家，尤其是中国，达成贸易协定，以避免唐纳德·特朗普总统的财政部长斯科特·贝森特所说的不可持续的关税战。 但在美国农业部门，损害已经造成，经济危机已经开始。 美国农业出口商表示，全球对特朗普关税的强烈反对正在惩罚他们，尤其是中国对美国农产品的购买量下降，导致出口订单取消和裁员。 农业运输联盟（AgTC）执行董事Peter Friedmann告诉CNBC，取消购买美国农产品的数量不应被描述为接近危机。 他说：“这已经是一场全面的危机。”。 美国农业部周四公布的资料显示，中国取消了自2020年以来最大的猪肉订单，停止了1.2万吨猪肉的运输。 AgTC表示，根据其从成员公司收到的报告，由於贸易战，其成员已经感受到了“巨大”的经济损失。 一家木浆和纸板出口商向贸易组织报告，立即取消或扣留了仓库中的6400公吨和15节轨道车，这些轨道车在供应链中被称为“滞期费”，即对货物延迟运输收取费用。 与此同时，出口商表示，9000公吨的产品正在运往中国，预计将於5月13日抵达，并面临着昂贵的转移到中国保税仓库或其他国家的威胁，因为中国买家可能会拒绝货物并将其丢弃在港口。 一家草籽出口商告诉AgTC，他们在两周前收到通知，尽管船只已经预订，但中国客户取消了八批货物。 在奥克兰港总部最近举行的一次关於关税影响的利益相关者会议上，奥克兰港执行董事克里斯蒂·麦肯尼警告说，关税导致的港口货物量下降——无论是进口放缓还是报复性出口损失——最终都可能危及就业稳定和该地区的经济健康。 麦肯尼引用了对美国农产品和制成品徵收报复性关税的例子； 两者都是通过奥克兰运输的重要出口商品。 出口产品包括杏仁、牛肉、猪肉、乳制品和回收资料，其中大部分运往亚洲。 中国是奥克兰最大的进口贸易夥伴和第三大出口夥伴，占奥克兰贸易总额的29%。 与许多严重依赖进口的美国港口不同，奥克兰在保持进出口接近50/50的平衡方面是独一无二的。 这让奥克兰担心，关税报复将直接影响其主要出口目的地——日本、台湾、中国和韩国——并可能大幅侵蚀加州易腐和高价值商品的市场份额。 奥克兰港是美国第一大冷藏出口门户，几乎所有通过北加州的集装箱货物都通过奥克兰港。 加利福尼亚州民主党众议员Lateefah Simon表示：“如此多的当地工会工作依赖於港口强大的航运业务，包括码头工人、卡车操作员和仓库工人。我支持明智的贸易政策，以提高工人水准，降低奥克兰工薪家庭的成本，而不是一场不合逻辑和报复性的贸易战。” 农业出口商警告称，没有其他市场可以迅速取代中国的需求并吸收产量，这已经影响了价格。 一比特木材出口商向AgTC报告称：“我们已将员工和生产转移到其他（利润较低的）生产中，并大幅放缓了从独立供应商（伐木工人、卡车司机、锯木厂）的采购。”。 该出口商报告称，一些产品的市值已经下降了20%，这将影响库存计画和未来投资。 这位木材出口商表示：“美国市场稳定且有所改善，但现在充斥着前中国产品的库存。”。 一家乾草和稻草等饲料出口商是美国农场供应海外牲畜业务的大企业，该出口商报告称，在特朗普4月2日宣布新关税後，有68艘船只被封锁。 该公司表示，这限制了其出口饲料产品的能力，因为仍停靠美国港口的货船的出口空间受到限制。 “令人担忧的是，剩下的船舶空间将是我们的产品在不亏本销售的情况下无法吸收的最昂贵/最‘优质’的服务。作为一种大批量、低价值的产品，我们无法承受海运费用的大幅增加，”该饲料出口商向AgTC报告。 根据Vizion Global Ocean Bookings Tracker的数据，截至4月14日，中美船舶交通量急剧下降，环比下降22.15%，同比下降44%。 Vizion战畧业务发展副总裁本·特蕾西表示：“过去两周，我们看到对美国进口商品的预订需求持续调整，尤其是美国从中国进口的商品。”。 “我们现在看到这也转化为离职人数的下降。” 华府中部的一家乾草出口商将大量农作物运往香港和中国大陆，该出口商被告知将过去两周运送的大部分出口产品改线运往日本、迪拜、台湾和中国一些港口。 这些变化对该公司来说是有代价的，该公司告诉AgTC，“这是不可持续的，没有人能取代中国购买的所有数量。” 这家乾草出口商表示，它立即停止了所有正在处理的订单，并开始裁员。 “我们不得不将员工人数减少12人。这占我们员工总数的四分之一，”它写道。 该公司表示，它一直在与客户和员工沟通，希望“我们国家高层草率鲁莽的决策能够扭转局面，缓解我们现时面临的深层次问题。” 除了关税反弹之外，农业还面临着另一个迫在眉睫的财务挑战，美国贸易代表最近准予了《船舶运输与装运法案》措施，从秋季开始，停靠美国港口的中国制造船只将被收取超过150万美元的港口费。 散装农业是从美国贸易代表办公室规定的港口费中扣除的，但集装箱运输的农业也不能免除这些费用。 弗里德曼表示，豁免至关重要，因为美国最有价值的农产品出口是用集装箱运输的，而不是散装运输。 集装箱出口包括冷藏牛肉、猪肉、家禽、水果、蔬菜、乳制品和炸薯条等加工食品。 棉花、坚果、干乳制品、木材、纸张、供人类食用的大豆以及乾草和苜蓿等饲料也装在集装箱里运输。 弗里德曼说：“包括集装箱农业在内的所有农产品出口豁免的努力仍在继续。”。 根据美国贸易数据，集装箱运输的美国农业份额按体积计算约为25%，按价值计算近55%。 美国贸易代表办公室没有回应CNBC关於集装箱农业费用豁免的置评请求。 一比特乾草出口商在给AgTC的信中写道：“我们的未来在很大程度上掌握在少数人手中。”。 “我们恳请这少数人在解决贸易不平衡和感知差异的同时，仔细研究如何保持货物流动。” 心得/评论： 一家领先的农业出口集团表示，随着中国停止购买从猪肉到木材的产品，农场已经出现了“巨大”的财务损失，订单取消导致裁员。 但在美国农业部门，损害已经造成，经济危机已经开始。 美国农业出口商表示，全球对特朗普关税的强烈反对正在惩罚他们，尤其是中国对美国农产品的购买量下降，导致出口订单取消和裁员。 科技巨头的进口被豁免，汽车金主进口也豁免。以爲川普很爱他们的红脖子受伤没人care，不会排在最後吧 -- 雪压枝头低，虽低不着泥 一朝红日出，依旧与天齐 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc), 来自: 218.28.117.234 (中国) ※ 文章网址: https://webptt.com/cn.aspx?n=bbs/Stock/M.1745889380.A.E27.html ※ 编辑: icrose (218.28.117.234 中国), 04/29/2025 09:19:09