原文连结：http://tinyurl.com/yzhddr9 Peace, Love and Thunderstanding: The Difference Between Winning and Losing Growing up as a baseball player, two things became incredibly clear to me. Superstitions are nothing to mess with, and statistics are the lifeblood of sport. I was that guy who came off the field and grabbed the scorebook to keep myself entertained when it wasn’t my turn to bat. That led to me getting lobbied by a lot by teammates to score their one hopper to the pitcher that was airmailed into the stands as a double. 在成为一个棒球选手的过程之中，我得知两件之前让我难以置信的事情。迷信其实跟比赛 没啥关联，还有统计数字对棒球很重要。当攻守交换，还没轮到我上场打击的时候，我会 研究记录簿，维持我对比赛的乐趣。[That led to me getting lobbied by a lot by teammates to score their one hopper to the pitcher that was airmailed into the stands as a double.](本句翻不出来orz) As I have grown older and become more obsessed with basketball, I have learned that basketball players are not very superstitious (how else can you explain the number of players who choose to wear the number thirteen–are they crazy?!?) and statistics are not as valuable to rating contributions on the floor (see Kevin Durant and plus/minus controversy). 当我变大了些，我开始比较喜欢篮球。我知道篮球员并不迷信(谁能解释篮球员可以大喇 喇的穿上13号球衣还不以为意？)而数据并不能完全反映出一个球员在场上的价值(可以参 考KD场上的表现与对於他plus/minus的争论)。 Of course, that last bit of information has not stopped me from trying to find a way to find value in a player’s stat sheet. Today, that led me to comparing how the Thunder’s core players (Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden) perform when the team wins versus how they perform in losses this season. After the jump, I share what I found. 当然，我上面所说的事情并没有阻止我试图从球员数据中找出评估球员价值的方法。今天 我想来比较雷霆的四个主力球员(Kevin Durant、Jeff Green、Russell Westbrook与 James Harden)赢球时的数据表现和输球时的数据表现。以下分享我比较的结果。 Kevin Durant Surprisingly, I learned that K.D. has very little control of whether the team wins or loses. His numbers are shockingly consistent regardless of whether the team gets the W or not. On victorious nights, he piles up 29.3 points, and if the team comes out on the wrong end, he only scores 26.7. That difference seems to come from the three point line. He has double the three point percentage in wins (38% to 18%) and nearly one more make per game. One thing I did notice, though, is that the spread of points in wins is uber-consistent–between 25 and 35 points. His three best scoring performances of the season (40 against the Clippers, 37 at Sacramento, and 36 against Boston) have come in games that did not go the Thunder’s way. Also, all three games in which he failed to reach twenty were losses. Kevin Durant 意外的，我得知KD的表现对球队赢球或输球的影响没想像中的大。他的数据不管是赢球还 是输球都差不多。赢球时平均得分29.3分，而输球时平均得分是26.7分。分数的差距似乎 是差在三分线的准度。赢球时三分球命中率38％，输球时只有18％，等於赢球时比输球时 多进一颗三分。 我注意到另一件事，他赢球时的得分总是落在25-35分。他本季得分最高的三场比赛(40分 -对快艇，37分-对国王，36分-对超塞)，球队都输球。不过这三场比赛都没有输到20分。 Jeff Green As consistent as K.D. has been, Green has been anything but. He certainly plays better in Thunder wins. Keep in mind, it isn’t that he plays differently… His shot attempts, defensive numbers, and fouls are the virtually the same. That means he isn’t be any more or less aggressive when the team is unsuccessful, he is just being more effective when they are successful. In wins he shoots 48% from the field, 36% from three, and makes 82% of his free throws. In losses, those percentages fall to 38%-20%-68%. Considering that his attempts are approximately the same, it is no suprise that his scoring average is six points less in losses. Jeff Green 跟KD表现一贯一样，Green也做了他所有该做的。他赢球时打得比较好。请记住，并不是 说他输球时的打法跟赢球时不一样。他的投篮次数、防守数据、犯规数都差不多。这代表 不论赢球或输球，他的积极度都差不多，只是赢球时他场上的效率比较好。 赢球时他的投篮命中率有48％，三分球命中率36％，罚球命中率82％。输球时是38％-20 ％-68％。考虑到他赢/输球的投球数大致相同，我并不对他输球时平均得分不到6分感到 意外。 Russell Westbrook It is probably time that I embrace the fact that Westbrook has the capability to be a 「true」 point guard. He has proven it this season. When the Thunder win, he averages 8.1 assists and has a sparkling 2.5/1 Assist-to-turnover ratio. In losses, however, he is anything but John Stockton. From the numbers, it appears that he is much more aggressive, in general, when they lose. He has more than twice as many steals in a loss, more blocks, more rebounds and takes more shots (even making them at a higher clip). The one difference? He isn’t passing the ball (5.3 assists), and his turnovers jump from 3.2 to 4.4 making his assist-to-turnover ratio less than half of the figure in wins. Russell Westbrook 现在可能是承认他有着成为一个真正的控球的能力时候了。他在本季已经证明了这件事。 当雷霆赢球时，他平均传出8.1次助攻，助攻/失误比是2.5/1。 然而当输球时，他就不是像Stockton那样的控球了。看输球的比赛数据，他显得更为积极 。他输球比赛的总抄截数是赢球的两倍，有更多火锅、篮板，并且投篮次数更多(甚至在 面对更压迫的防守时[不确定：even making them at a higher clip])。唯一的不同 是助攻。他输球时变得不会传球了，平均助攻下修为5.3，失误从3.2次增加到4.4次，助 攻/失误比不到赢球的一半。 James Harden When I started this exercise, I assumed that Harden would be the least crucial to determining the outcome. He is a rookie, isn’t a starter (yet), and he plays, by far the fewest minutes of the four guys expected to be who this team is built around. In the end, though, I am leaning toward saying he may be the most important X-factor. His averages do not tell that story: In wins, he puts up 10.6 points, 2.9 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1 steal, and 0.2 blocks. In losses, he puts up 8.6, 2.1, 2.0, 1.2, and 0.4. So basically, his line is no different. Unfortunately, how he reaches those statistics is entirely different. In losses, Harden takes far more shots and makes far fewer. For instance, he makes just as many three point shots per game, but in losses he does it with four attempts, while in wins he takes about two. In all, he makes 53% of his shots from the floor on a successful night, but only 28% if the Thunder lose. James Harden 当我开始比较他的数据时，我假定Harden会是影响比赛结果的最关键。他是个菜鸟，还不 是个先发，而他的上场时间在四个被认为是未来球队基石的球员中是最少的。最後，我倾 向於认为他可能真的是影响比赛最重要的X-factor。 他的攻守数据不会告诉你上面这些事：赢球→10.6分、2.9助攻、3.5篮板、1抄截、0.2火 锅。输球→8.6分、2.1助攻、2.0篮板、1.2抄截、0.4火锅。两者相差不多。 可惜的是，他完成这些数据的方式是不一样的。输球时，他投球命中率比赢球时低很多 ，举例来说，他赢/输球的比赛三分球投进数是差不多的，但是输球时他一场平均要投4个 ，赢球一场平均只要投2个(就可以达成差不多的三分球投进数)。总而言之，他赢球时命 中率高达53％，但输球时命中率只剩28％。 Anyway, next time you are watching a game, key on how well Green and Harden are shooting and how well Westbrook is running the offense. It will probably tell you all you need to know. 总之，当我们看下一场比赛的时候，仔细看看Green打得多好，Harden投篮准度如何， Russ进攻战术带的如何。这应该会让我们了解所有我们必须知道的。 -- 『也许你想从我身上寻求许多东西。可是我却一点也没有感觉自己有什麽被需求。』 --

※ 发信站: 批踢踢实业坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 211.22.7.197 ※ 编辑: poning 来自: 211.22.7.197 (12/11 15:04)