这是ESPN专栏作家Bill Simmons所排的交易价值排行榜，台湾记者引用的就是这一篇 BS是个死忠的塞尔提克迷，所以也常常酸湖人XD 他的文章一向以辛辣诙谐着称，是个文笔很好的高级酸酸。 虽然这麽说，但他的文章真的很有意思(但难度很高阿..)， 也不知道有没办法把文章韵味完整翻出来，只翻了我们有上榜的球员(Love,Rubio,Peko) 有错误的地方请尽量指出来 原文连http://ppt.cc/2VgZ NBA 交易价值准则 1. Salaries matter. Would you rather pay Kyrie Irving $5.5 million a year or Chris Paul $17.78 million? 2. Age matters. Would you rather have Dirk Nowitzki for the next four seasons or Blake Griffin for the next 12? 3. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without cap ramifications but with luxury-tax and next-day-cap ramifications. If Team A tells Team B, "We'll trade you Player X for Player Y," would Team B make the deal? 4. Concentrate on degrees. I don't think the Rockets or Heat would make a Harden-Wade swap, but Miami would at least say, "Harden's available?" while Houston would say, "We can't trade Harden for someone who's seven years older." That counts in the big scheme of things. 5. The list runs in reverse order. So if Stephen Curry comes in at no. 15, players 1 through 14 are all players about whom Golden State would say, "We hate giving up Curry, but we definitely have to at least have a meeting and discuss this proposal." And the Warriors wouldn't trade him straight-up for any player listed between nos. 15 and 50. 1.薪水问题。你愿意支付Kyrie Irving一年550万美元或Chris Paul 一年1778万美元？ 2.年龄问题。你选择接下来4年拥有Dirk Nowitzki还是拥有Blake Griffin 12年？ 3.假装联盟通过以下规则：在24小时之内，任何球员的交易都无视远期薪资空间的影响 ，只考虑奢侈税和近期薪资空间。这两队还会做交易吗? 4.注意球队角度。我不认为火箭或热火队会考虑Harden<->Wade的交易，但是热火至少会 表示："我们能得到哈登的是吧？”火箭队则肯定会说“我才不会用Harden去换这个比他 老七岁的家夥。”这在重量级交易里占了很大的原因。 5.列表以相反的顺序运行。举个例子，如果Stephen Curry排第15，金州勇士队则会对排 名1到14位的球员表示“啊，我们讨厌放弃Curry，但至少我们可以花点时间，好好讨论这 笔交易的。”但是勇士队绝不会用Curry单换排名16-50的球员的。 ========================================================== H: "I'm Hanging Up" H组:“我要挂电话了” 32. Nikola Pekovic We're on a run of Nikolas! Pekovic becomes a restricted free agent this summer, which means anyone looking for a highly skilled offensive center/enforcer/General Zod henchman can structure an offer specifically designed to screw over the pathetic Timberwolves. For instance, let's say Cleveland comes in and offers him $50 million for four years, thinking (rightfully so) that it's overpaying a little to run delightfully unstoppable high screens with Pek and Kyrie Irving for the next four years. Let's have Fake Hubie Brown break the rest of this down for us. 我们正朝着Nikola们前进!*(1)Pekovic在这个夏天将会变成一名受限制自由球员，这也意味 着任何正在寻找一名技巧纯熟的进攻型中锋/执法者/Zod henchman将军*(2) 都能提供一份 专门为此精心设计的报价来坑可怜的灰狼队。 举个例子，当克里夫兰也进场了，并提供给他一份四年5000万的合约。试想(其实是理所当 然地)这份有点过高的合同能让我们在接下来四年兴高采烈地看着 Pek 和 Kyrie Irving以 无法阻挡的姿态不断的打高位挡拆。接下来只要有个假的Hubie Brown就能解决剩下的一切 了。 "If you're Minnesota, you have to match any Pekovic offer because — cover your ears, Jerry Reinsdorf — you cannot afford to lose an asset for nothing! Now, you already gave a max extension to Kevin Love, only you allowed Kevin to get out of that deal after three years, following the 2014-15 season. That was a big mistake. And you have Ricky Rubio eligible for a max contract this summer, or something close to it, and he is a magnificent basketball player as well. With those three guys, your team has tremendous upside potential. Unfortunately, you're a small-market team and you can't commit that much money to three players long term. You also have Love's potential departure hanging over your heads. So if you match Pekovic, you have to dangle Kevin Love around and get as much as you possibly can. But Love is a better player than Pekovic, which means you compounded a previously bad decision with another bad decision. And, guys, this is why you haven't won more than 35 games since Tiger Woods last won the Masters." 如果你是灰狼队，你得匹配Pekovic的任何报价，因为— 堵住你的你的耳朵，Jerry Reinsdorf*(3)－你不能白白失去你的资产却没拿回任何东西!现在，你已经准 备好要给Kevin Love一份顶薪的合约了，只仅是为了让他能在2015年能继续待在队上。 这实在是个大错误。 而你会在夏天给Ricky Rubio一个符合他身价的顶薪或者接近的合约，他也是个优秀神奇的 篮球选手。拥有这三个家伙，你的球队潜力会有了不起的巨大提升。 不幸的是，你是一个小市场球队，你不能长期地为这三名球员付这麽多钱。 你同时也得为Love有离去的可能而耿耿於怀；所以，如果你匹配了Pekovic的合同，你所 能拿到的最多就都围绕在Kevin Love身上了。 但Love是一个明显比Pekovic更为优秀的球员，这代表着你为了弥补之前所做的一个坏决定， 又要做另一个坏决定。同时，诸位，这也是为什麽你们从Tiger Woods获得Masters赛冠 军後就再也没有赢超过35场比赛的原因。 GROUP G: "Come on, You Know We're Building Around This Guy!" G组:少来了!你知道我们正在围绕着他建立一支队伍 22. Ricky Rubio It's like 1997 Jason Kidd had a baby with 2009 Rajon Rondo. You're right, that was disgusting. But he's a spectacular playmaker, an electric passer, a phenomenally unselfish teammate and an occasionally destructive defensive player. He sees everything about a split-second before everyone else does. He's wonderful to watch. There's nobody like him. Right now, he can't shoot even a lick. That's the only problem, and it's not a small one. Check out this Rubio shot chart that our friend Kirk Goldsberry made us. 他现在的情况就像是1997 的Jason Kidd和2009 的Rajon Rondo在一起生下来的孩子。 没错，我知道这很恶心。但他是个有着广阔视野和优秀大局观的组织者，迅捷如电的传球 手，非凡的无私队友和偶尔成为极具破坏性的防守球员。 他在场上看见的任何事总是比别人快一拍，打球看起来美妙又精彩，独一无二。 现在，他还不能稳定地投篮。这是唯一的问题，而且并不小。看看我们的朋友Kirk Goldsberry 为我们做的Rubio的得分统计图表。 http://ppt.cc/ISeL (Rubio几乎每一种投篮都低於联盟平均...) So this isn't just about struggling to become a respectable outside shooter, which was Kidd's biggest issue once upon a time. If Rubio isn't finishing around the rim, that's a much bigger problem if the reason isn't "Don't be a dick, you know it takes two years to recover from a torn ACL!" Then again, how many guards could affect games as dramatically as Rubio does without scoring a single point? It's not a long list. I'm still drinking the Kool-Aid here. 所以这可不仅仅是关於如何成为一个可敬的外线射手这样的事，曾几何时，这也是Kidd的 头痛问题。当Rubio 依旧无法在篮下造成杀伤力，而理由已不再是「少白痴了你这个猪 头，你得知道ACL要花两年的时间才能复原的。」的时候，这可会是个大问题。 话又说回来，有多少後卫能像Rubio这样无法拥有稳定的得分却能对比赛造成如此显着的 影响?在名单上的人并不多，我对此事可是深信不疑。 Group F: "Don't Tell Anyone, and I'll Deny It to the Death, But I'm Listening." F组:我会到死都会否认这件交易案的，但我正在听着呢，别告诉任何人呦 20. Kevin Love Tough love for Love! He already lost the 2013 Mokeski to David Lee; now he's bungee-jumping 16 picks from last year's lofty no. 4 spot to this year's semi-insulting no. 20 position, which normally wouldn't happen to a 24-year-old franchise star unless he was arrested with two underage girls and three and a half pounds of molly. Just know that he didn't drop 16 spots because of that twice-broken hand. If we're measuring players by trade value, we're really measuring them by the probability that they'd ever be traded. And Kevin Love WILL be traded. It's inevitable. It might happen this summer, it might happen during next season, but it's going to happen. 多艰难的爱啊!!他也失去了2013年的Mokeski奖*(4)，并同时被David Lee取代；现在他从去年极高 的第四名一下蹦了十六名，来到第二十名。除非他被逮捕了，同时身旁还有两个未成年少 女和3.5磅重的molly(应该是毒品之类的)否则正常来说这件事不会发生在一个24岁的看板 球星上。你只要先知道，他会降了16个名次可不是因为那断了两次的手。 如果我们衡量交易价值的球员，我们真实的从进行交易的概率来衡量他们。Kevin Love将 会被交易。这是不可避免的。它可能会在今年夏天发生，也可能发生在明年的赛季，但它 就是会发生。 And here's why: Before the 2011-12 season started, Minnesota could have locked Love up to a five-year max extension that he wanted to sign. Incredibly, the T-Wolves decided it would be dumb to lock up a 23-year-old franchise guy for as long as humanly possible; they wanted to save that "max" extension slot for Ricky Rubio. Love signed a lucrative four-year extension with a player option for Year 4 (after 2014-15) that may as well be called "Kevin Love's Get Out of Jail Free Card." He's been bitter ever since. You would be too. 其中的原因：在2011-12赛季开始之前，灰狼队本来应该用Love想签下的五年合约绑 住他。令人难以置信的是，灰狼队判断出的结论是，尽任何能力所及留住一个23岁的建队 基石这件事是愚蠢的，他们想保留住“最大”的薪资空间来给Ricky Rubio。Love签下了一 份丰厚的4年顶薪合约并在第四年有着球员选项（2014-15），这可能也被称为 「Kevin Love逃离监狱的免费凭证」他可是一直受苦到现在。你也会同意的。 What should you do if you're Minnesota? If you're smart, you'd build around Rubio (about to get an extension), Pekovic (about to get paid) and whatever you can get for Kevin Love. The blueprint: In February 2011, the Jazz shrewdly dealt Deron Williams 17 months before he could bolt Utah for a high lottery pick (Derrick Favors) and a future lottery pick (that became no. 3 overall: Enes Kanter), maximizing any and all leverage they had. I don't see how the T-Wolves make it through this summer without doing the same. The likeliest suitor? Chicago. The Bulls have big contracts to make the trade work (Luol Deng on the enticing side, Carlos Boozer on the less enticing side); they're loaded with assets like Jimmy Butler (no. 49 on this year's list), the rights to Mirotic (a high lottery pick if he entered this year's draft), and the rights to Charlotte's future no. 1 pick (top-10 protected in 2014, top-eight protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016); and they're a big-market contender with a superstar in house (so they could keep Love for the long haul). 如果你是灰狼队你该怎麽做?如果你够聪明，你会围绕着Rubio(预计会得到一份顶薪合约) ，Pekovic(预计会有一份大合约)还有你从Kevin Love身上换来的任何东西。举个重建蓝图 的例子:2011年二月爵士精明的处理掉了Deron Williams得到当年的高顺位的乐透签 (Derrick Favors)和一个未来的乐透签(这变成了Enes Kanter)，他们把他们所得到的东 西价值最大化。 我并没看见任何迹象显示灰狼队在夏天不会像爵士队这样行动。 最有可能的亲家? 芝加哥。公牛队有着想要交易掉的大合约(Luol Deng ，迷人的一面 ;Carlos Boozer ，不迷人的一面)，他们有着满满的资产，像Jimmy Butler，Mirotic(?? 随便啦…)的高顺位签，和夏洛特山猫的no.1顺位选秀签(在2014年受保护的前十顺位， 2015年受保护的前八顺位，2016年不受保护)，而公牛队有着大市场和超级明星队友(所以 他们会牢牢抓住Love的) Let's say Chicago calls Minnesota in June and offers them Boozer's contract with Butler, Mirotic AND the Charlotte pick. How could the T-Wolves turn that down? And if you're the Bulls, how would you turn down the chance to (a) dump Boozer's deal, and (b) upend a potential Miami dynasty with a nucleus of Rose, Noah, Love, Deng, Taj Gibson and Tom Thibodeau these next few years? You know, unless your owner was too cheap to make a real run at the Heat? (Cut to every Chicago fan grimacing.) Anyway, I'm dropping Love to 20 only because that Bulls trade made too much damned sense. It just did. 比方说，公牛队在6月联络了灰狼队，并为他们提供了Boozer的合同，附加上Butler， Mirotic"和"夏洛特的高顺位选秀签。 灰狼队怎麽能拒绝？如果你是公牛，你又怎麽会放 弃掉这样的机会（a）丢掉Boozer大合约的大好机会，及（b）在未来几年与Rose, Noah, Love, Deng,Taj Gibson 和 Tom Thibodeau这些人颠覆逐渐成形的迈阿密王朝？你知道的 ，否则要打败他们，除非热火的老板接下来不愿付出什麽代价来好好的经营热火（镜头 切到每一个咬牙切齿的芝加哥球迷） 无论如何，我把Love放在第20名是因为和公牛做的这笔交易实在太他妈有道理了。 它就是如此。 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 备注*1 Pekovich的後一个名次是Nikola Vucevic *2 电影超人当中的大反派 *3 公牛队老板。BS应该是在讽刺他去年夏天为了避开奢侈税而放走好几个有潜力的 好球员。 *4 奖名是来自Paul Mokeski，曾当过山猫队的助教，这个奖是颁给联盟最佳的白人球 员。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 说说我的看法，虽然现在各队都在幻想跟我们做关於Love的交易(这件事其实连乳摸都没出 来，所以的确是各队的专栏作者的意淫而已)，而且老桑才刚上任，基本上是不会在这个夏 天做这种惊天动地的大洗牌的。 还有Love跟Rubio这个赛季只一起打了呃...不到5场，我真的很喜欢他们的配合(他们的球 商都很高，又善於传球，愿意好好执行的话能跑出很漂亮的战术的)，希望他们能一起完整 的打完一个赛季再说。 最後，如果能跟Peko顺利续约的话，说不定会让这件事多了一点回旋余地，他跟Love有同 一个经纪人。 --

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