https://tinyurl.com/2vkfukwc Before examining what may happen with the Timberwolves offseason, let’s set a few assumed premises for how the Wolves will operate. 在探讨灰狼队休赛季可能发生的事情之前，让我们先设定几个将如何运作的 前提。 First, when the Wolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns, and the contract that pays him $220 million through the 2028 season, it was a signal that they weren’t going to be a team over the dreaded NBA second apron for too long. They were in the second apron this season as lucrative extensions for Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels entered their first years. 首先，当灰狼队交易走 Karl-Anthony Towns，以及那份支付到2028年总计 2.2亿美元的合约时，这是一个讯号，表明他们不打算长时间成为一支超出 NBA可怕的「第二层豪华税线」（second apron）的球队。本赛季 Anthony Edwards 和 Jaden McDaniels 丰厚的延长合约生效，因而突破第二层豪华 税线。 The Wolves face high tax rates for being in this area of the luxury tax, but being a second-apron team carries with it punitive roster-building restrictions that teams have come to detest: freezing of draft picks in trades; having future picks fall to the end of the first round; the inability to combine salaries to make trades; the inability to use the midlevel exception in free agency. 灰狼队在这个区间内除了面临高额税率，还会带来球队都厌恶的惩罚性阵容 建构限制：交易中冻结选秀权、未来选秀权顺位会掉到首轮末端、无法合并 薪资进行交易、无法在自由球员市场中使用中产特例。 All that would be on the table for the Wolves in future years should they remain a second-apron team, and that was a big motivating factor behind trading Towns for Julius Randle, who has a player option next season, and Donte DiVincenzo, who is signed for two more years for a combined $23.5 million. 如果灰狼队未来几年仍停留在此区间内，所有限制都将适用於他们，这也是 他们用 Towns 换来 Julius Randle（下赛季拥有球员选择权）和 Donte DiVincenzo（还有两年合约，总计2350万美元）的重要动机。 The next signal the Wolves sent that they wanted to duck under the second apron was Rudy Gobert’s extension, which he agreed to opening night of the season. That moved saved the team $12 million in space for next season, with the threshold for the second apron set at nearly $207.8 million. At the time, Gobert referenced working with the Wolves and taking less money than he might have earned in an attempt to maintain a competitive roster. 另一个希望避开第二层豪华税线的讯号来自於续约Rudy Gobert，他在开幕 夜就同意签约。第二层豪华税门槛接近2.078亿美元，这笔签约为球队下赛 季团队薪资下修1200万美元。Gobert 当时提到与灰狼队合作，为了维持竞 争力，他愿意领取较少的薪资。 As for paying the tax, incoming controlling owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez, who aren’t doing on-the-record interviews at least until the NBA has officially finalized the sale of the team to them from Glen Taylor, have previously said they have money to spend to invest in the team. 至於支付豪华税，即将上任的控股老板 Marc Lore 和 Alex Rodriguez（至 少在官方正式敲定 Glen Taylor 将球队出售给他们之前，他们不会接受公开 采访）曾表示，他们有钱投资球队。 So, operating on the premises that the Wolves will be a first-apron team and that Lore and Rodriguez are willing to pay the necessary luxury tax for them to be so, here’s a look at what might happen this offseason for the Wolves. 因此，基於灰狼队将会是一支「第一层豪华税线」球队，并且 Lore 和 A-Rod 愿意支付必要的豪华税的前提下，展望灰狼队今年夏天可能发生 的情况。 The Randle and Reid options Randle 和 Reid 的抉择 Randle, 30, and Naz Reid, 25, are in different spots relative to their ages and what they are owed on their options (Randle’s is $31 million, Reid’s is $15 million). 30岁的 Randle 和25岁的 Naz Reid，在年龄和选择权金额（Randle 为3100 万美元，Reid 为1500万美元）都处於不同情况。 I’m a little skeptical about his claim for Reid opting in, but I can see the case for Randle. He’s 30, and while his Western Conference finals wasn’t what he or fans envisioned, he played great the first two rounds and found his footing in Minnesota late in the regular season. 关於 Reid 会执行选择权的说法持保留态度，但能理解 Randle 的情况。他 30岁了，虽然在西区冠军赛表现并非他或球迷们所期望的，但他前两轮表现 出色，并在例行赛後段站稳脚步。 He has said many times over that the lifestyle fits him and his family well, and he loves playing for coach Chris Finch. But he might not make $31 million on the open market, and by opting in he could also still sign an extension with the Wolves beyond that. If he’s willing to do what Gobert did and give up some money, he could opt out of that option and negotiate a long-term deal at a lower number than $31 million. 他曾多次表示，这里的生活方式很适合他及家人，而且喜欢为教练 Chris Finch 效力。他可能无法在公开市场争取到3100万美元，而选择执行选择权 後，他後续仍可与灰狼队谈妥一份延长合约。如果愿意像 Gobert 那样少领 一些薪资，他可以放弃该选择权，并以谈妥一份起薪低於3100万美元的长期 合约。 But opting in and then extending could be a middle ground for both sides to get what they want in terms of money and financial flexibility for the future in what likely will be the last big chance for Randle to have a big payday in his early 30s. 执行选择权後再续约，可能是双方在金钱和未来财务灵活性的一个折衷方 案，这很可能是 Randle 在30岁出头时争取大约的最後机会。 As for Reid, he indicated at the team’s exit interviews that he was likely to decline his option and shoot for a long-term deal. 至於 Reid，在球季终了的采访表示，他很可能放弃球员选择权，并寻求一份 长期合约。 “I think the work has been put in,” Reid said. “Obviously, I’ ve got a long way to go with being only 25, but for sure. I think that’s what the future looks like for me.” 「我觉得努力已经付出。」Reid 说道。「显然，我才25岁，还有很长的路要 走。但肯定的是，我认为那会是我的未来。」 Reid could also opt in and negotiate a long-term deal on top of it, or opt out and get a long-term deal with the Wolves or elsewhere. The Wolves value Reid highly, and one of the reasons for making the Towns deal was because it made it more likely they could have Reid playing alongside Edwards and his good friend McDaniels for years to come. Reid, last season’s Sixth Man of the Year, might want to become a starter, and he views himself as such. Other teams might be in a better position to offer him that should Randle and Gobert both return, but Reid also indicated he might be open again to coming off the bench, especially for another chance to win. Reid 也可以选择执行选择权，并在此基础上谈妥一份长期合约，或者选择放 弃，与灰狼队或他队签下一份长期合约。灰狼队非常看重 Reid，而交易 Towns 的原因之一，也是为了让 Reid 在未来几年更有机会与 Edwards 和 McDaniels 并肩作战。Reid 可能希望成为先发球员，他本人也这样认为。如 果 Randle 和 Gobert 都回归，其他球队相对更有能力提供先发机会，但 Reid 也表示愿意再次接受从板凳出发，特别是为了另一个争冠机会。 “… If you want to be in a winning position, sometimes you might have to sacrifice,“ he said. ”So I definitely view myself as a starter, but things happen, things change. You never know what’s ahead of you until you talk about it and until you go through it.” 「...如果你想处在赢球环境，有时候可能需要牺牲。我当然认为自己是一名 先发球员，但计划赶不上变化，在你真正谈论并经历之前，你永远无法预知 事情怎麽发展。」 Again, the lack of teams with money to spend will affect his market if he opts out. Just how much remains to be seen, but Reid is itching for a big payday, whether from the Wolves or elsewhere. If the Wolves want to re-sign him, they have about $27.8 million under the second apron to do so (this is where the Gobert contract is helpful), assuming Randle opts in to his deal and Reid opts out of his. This is also before factoring in that the Wolves have the 17th pick in the draft (slated to make around $4.2 million) and No. 31 (second-round picks aren’t subject to a salary slot, but for reference the No. 30 pick is slated to make $2.74 million). 同样地，如果他选择跳脱合约，少有球队保有薪资空间将影响他的行情，影 响程度还有待观察，但 Reid 渴望获得一份大约，无论是来自灰狼队或其他 球队。如果灰狼队想重新签下他，假设 Randle 选择执行，而 Reid 选择放 弃，那麽球队在第二层豪华税线下，大约还有2780万美元的空间可以签下他 （Gobert 合约发挥作用）。这还没有考虑到选秀会第17顺位（预计薪资约为 420万美元）和第31顺位（第二轮选秀权不受薪资限制，但第30顺位的薪资预 计为274万美元可作为参考）。 What about NAW? NAW 的动向？ This is where fans might have to prepare themselves for some heartbreak. Nickeil Alexander-Walker was making $4.3 million this season. He is in line to be a target for teams to spend their midlevel exception, which opens his market to many more teams than Reid or Randle, who will be making or looking to make more than the approximately $14 million midlevel exception. Nickeil Alexander-Walker 本赛季的薪资为430万美元。他有望成为各队动 用中产特例的目标，这使得他的市场比 Reid 和 Randle 更广阔，因为 Reid 和 Randle 的起薪将超过1400万美元的中产特例。 This is where Alexander-Walker’s next payday could land. It just doesn’t look like the Wolves could afford to pay him around $14 million while staying under the second apron and retaining Randle or Reid. If they lose Randle or Reid, then it would seem retaining Alexander-Walker is on the table. 这可能是NAW下一份合约的落点。灰狼队似乎无法在支付他约1400万美元的薪 资，同时又保持第二层豪华税线下，并留住 Randle、Reid。如果他们失去 Randle 或 Reid，那麽留下 NAW 似乎就成为可能。 But the Wolves seemingly have young players at guard or wing waiting , such as Terrence Shannon Jr., Jaylen Clark and Rob Dillingham, who could fill his spot in the rotation. 但目前阵中二、三号有多位年轻小将在等待挤进轮替的机会。 For the future, the Wolves also need to see what they have in their young talent, especially Dillingham, as Mike Conley enters the final year of his contract, when he will turn 38. Free agency can always take unexpected twists and turns, so never say never, but bringing back Alexander-Walker will be tough without re-entering the second apron. 对於未来，灰狼队也需要看看阵中年轻小将的能耐，特别是Dillingham， 因为 Mike Conley 即将进入合约的最後一年，届时将年满38岁。自由球员 市场总是会出现意想不到的转折，所以永远不要说不可能，但若要续留NAW ， 同时不重新突破第二层豪华税线，将会有难度。 The KD wild card KD 变数 There’s one thing that can upend the Wolves’ offseason and the trajectory of this franchise in years to come: The Wolves making another attempt to trade for Phoenix forward Kevin Durant. 有一件事可以颠覆灰狼队的休赛季以及这支球队未来几年的走向：再次尝试 交易来 Kevin Durant。 The Wolves tried to trade for him at February’s trade deadline but came up short. It’s likely they will make some calls back to the Suns to see if the interest is there again. 灰狼队曾在二月份的交易截止日前尝试交易他，但未能成功。他们很可能会 再次联系太阳队，观察是否有再次交易的意愿。 Durant is the favorite player of Edwards, who played with his childhood hero at the Olympics last summer. There seems to be an interest in Durant playing again with Edwards. Durant, who averaged 26.6 points per game on 53% shooting (43% from three-point range) in 2024-25, will turn 37 in September. He will be entering the final year of his contract and will make $54.7 million next season. KD 是 AE 最喜欢的球员，AE 去年夏天在奥运会上与这位儿时偶像并肩作战 。KD 似乎也对两人再次合作有兴趣。2024-25赛季，KD场均得到26.6分，投 篮命中率为53%（三分球命中率为43%），他将在九月满37岁。下赛季进入合 约的最後一年，年薪为5470万美元。 To trade for Durant, the Wolves would have to shake up the roster in a big way, and it likely would mean relying on some of the young talent to fill out their depth, if such a move occurs. They have limited draft capital to trade, so they would have to get creative and perhaps even deal some of those young players and current rotation pieces to make the move happen. 为了交易 KD，灰狼队将不得不大幅调整阵容，而且可能意味着需要依赖一些 小将来填补阵容深度。球队的选秀资产有限，因此他们必须发挥创意，甚至 可能交易一些年轻小将和现有的轮替阵容来促成这笔交易。 That move is hard to predict and would throw everything else I just said above out the window. But such is the NBA offseason. 这个异动仍有很多不确定性，且会推翻前述所有事情，但这就是NBA的休赛 季。 --- 月底从 Naz 和 Randle 的决定开始， 逐渐就能看出球队休赛季发展， 继续保持竞争力还是第一要务。 --

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